Prediction comparison

PTS2 Men

13.03.2026 AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Para Series Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 100/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 74 früheren Rennen und 1686 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 07.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 74 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.0

Mean swim error24.2 s

Mean bike-speed error2.12 km/h

Correct bike groups2/4

No history0

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Mark Barr USA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:50 20:46	53:21	Show details Prediction details: Mark Barr Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:47 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 95.5 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.55 km/h Running and total Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:46 (4:09 / km) Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 53:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:31 (35.8 km/h) Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km) Total: 53:21
2 / 1	Mohamed Lahna USA	+96 s +67 s	G2 / G1	19:44 19:46	54:30	Show details Prediction details: Mohamed Lahna Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +96 s Time: 12:23 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: 28.5 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Gap ahead: 95.5 s Gap behind: 99.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 32.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.33 km/h Running and total Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:46 (3:57 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 54:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:23 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (36.2 km/h) Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km) Total: 54:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:08 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m About 75 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Thomas Goodman AUS	+349 s +309 s	G3 / G3 correct	21:55 20:47	1:05:38	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Goodman Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +349 s Time: 16:36 Pace: 2:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +309 s Fehler: 39.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 154.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 29.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h Running and total Run: 21:55 (4:23 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:47 (4:09 / km) Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:05:38 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:36 (2:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:54 (29.9 km/h) Run: 21:55 (4:23 / km) Total: 1:05:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:51 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 344.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3	Kyle Stepp USA	+195 s +166 s	G3 / G2	25:25 21:23	1:09:08	Show details Prediction details: Kyle Stepp Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +195 s Time: 14:02 Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +166 s Fehler: 28.5 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 99.0 s Gap behind: 154.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 31.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.15 km/h Running and total Run: 25:25 (5:05 / km) Historical basis: 5:17 / km Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.24 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:23 (4:17 / km) Error: +4:02 / +0:49 / km Overall prediction: 1:09:08 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:02 (1:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:54 (29.9 km/h) Run: 25:25 (5:05 / km) Total: 1:09:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:51 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 190.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total