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PTS2 Women

13.03.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Para Series Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error11.9 s
Mean bike-speed error1.26 km/h
Correct bike groups0/3
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Anu Francis
AUS
+68 s
+61 s
G2 / G1
 23:11
22:58
 1:05:01
Show details
Prediction details: Anu Francis

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 14:47
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 31.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 29.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:58 (4:36 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:01
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:47 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:42 (29.1 km/h)
Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km)
Total: 1:05:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:11
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 35.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Asumi Yasuda
JPN
+36 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 23:32
23:22
 1:05:22
Show details
Prediction details: Asumi Yasuda

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 14:15
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -29.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 35.9 s
Gap behind: 31.6 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:32 (4:42 / km)
Historical basis: 4:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:22 (4:40 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:22
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 14:15 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:42 (29.1 km/h)
Run: 23:32 (4:42 / km)
Total: 1:05:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:43
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
About 32 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Yukako Hata
JPN
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 28:42
28:30
 1:09:36
Show details
Prediction details: Yukako Hata

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:39
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 35.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 27.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:42 (5:44 / km)
Historical basis: 5:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:30 (5:42 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:39 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:54 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 28:42 (5:44 / km)
Total: 1:09:36