Prediction comparison

PTS5 Men

13.03.2026 AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Para Series Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 83/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 74 früheren Rennen und 1686 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 07.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 74 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.2

Mean swim error39.0 s

Mean bike-speed error3.23 km/h

Correct bike groups1/9

No history0

Within the 80% range55.6 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Chris Hammer USA	+92 s +126 s	G1 / G2	15:41 16:17	46:58	Show details Prediction details: Chris Hammer Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: 12:01 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +126 s Fehler: -34.3 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 77.5 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h Running and total Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 46:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:45 (39.8 km/h) Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km) Total: 46:58
2 / 1	Jack Howell AUS	+14 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:18 16:21	47:35	Show details Prediction details: Jack Howell Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 10:43 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 2.2 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 88 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.2 s Gap behind: 77.5 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.30 km/h Running and total Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 47:35 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:45 (39.8 km/h) Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km) Total: 47:35
3 / 3	David Bryant AUS	+92 s +123 s	G1 / G3	17:39 17:14	48:56	Show details Prediction details: David Bryant Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: 12:01 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +123 s Fehler: -30.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 26.6 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.33 km/h Running and total Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 48:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:45 (39.8 km/h) Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km) Total: 48:56
4 / 5	Oscar Dennis KEN	+0 s +73 s	G1 / G4	18:52 18:52	50:09	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Dennis Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +73 s Fehler: -73.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 14.2 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h Running and total Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 50:09 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:45 (39.8 km/h) Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Total: 50:09
5 / 8	Tsutomu Nagata JPN	+130 s +209 s	G3 / G7	17:31 17:24	51:31	Show details Prediction details: Tsutomu Nagata Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +130 s Time: 12:39 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +209 s Fehler: -78.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.3 s Gap behind: 37.5 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 33.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.78 km/h Running and total Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 51:31 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:39 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:49 (37.7 km/h) Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Total: 51:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:05 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 34 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6	Takumi Ando JPN	+119 s +167 s	G2 / G5	19:13 19:03	53:03	Show details Prediction details: Takumi Ando Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +119 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +167 s Fehler: -48.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.97 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 26.6 s Gap behind: 11.3 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 35.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h Running and total Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 53:03 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h) Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km) Total: 53:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:05 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 22.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Ernestas Cesonis LTU	+168 s +184 s	G4 / G6	18:39 18:53	54:04	Show details Prediction details: Ernestas Cesonis Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +168 s Time: 13:17 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +184 s Fehler: -16.2 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 37.5 s Gap behind: 70.2 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h Running and total Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 54:04 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:17 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:37 (36.8 km/h) Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Total: 54:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:06 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 71.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9	Theodoros Moraitis GRE	+238 s +306 s	G5 / G8	23:32 25:43	1:03:22	Show details Prediction details: Theodoros Moraitis Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +238 s Time: 14:27 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +306 s Fehler: -68.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 70.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.77 km/h Running and total Run: 23:32 (4:42 / km) Historical basis: 4:42 / km Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 25:43 (5:09 / km) Error: −2:11 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:22 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:27 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:52 (33.5 km/h) Run: 23:32 (4:42 / km) Total: 1:03:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:05 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 141.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Jack Gibson AUS	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G2	18:08		Show details Prediction details: Jack Gibson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 35.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.50 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:45 (39.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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