Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

PTS5 Women

13.03.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Para Series Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error5.4 s
Mean bike-speed error0.55 km/h
Correct bike groups2/3
No history0
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Grace Brimelow
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		26:29
22:10
 1:04:45
Show details
Prediction details: Grace Brimelow

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:42
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 198.7 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km)
Historical basis: 5:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:10 (4:26 / km)
Error: +4:19 / +0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:45
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:42 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:16 (31.4 km/h)
Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km)
Total: 1:04:45
2 / 3 Michelle Dynes
USA
+199 s
+200 s
G2 / G3
 26:07
23:03
 1:10:14
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Dynes

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +199 s
Time: 15:01
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +200 s
Fehler: -1.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 198.7 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:07 (5:13 / km)
Historical basis: 5:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:03 (4:37 / km)
Error: +3:04 / +0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:14
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:01 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:42 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 26:07 (5:13 / km)
Total: 1:10:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:46
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
About 194.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Virginia Ogburn
USA
+205 s
+190 s
G2 / G2
correct
21:07
Show details
Prediction details: Virginia Ogburn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +205 s
Time: 15:07
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +190 s
Fehler: 15.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (4:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:07 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:42 (29.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:57
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +194.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.