Prediction comparison

PTS2 Men

27.06.2026 Parc Jean Drapeau CAN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Para Series Montreal

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 86/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 399 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 27.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.9

Mean swim error32.6 s

Mean bike-speed error4.20 km/h

Correct bike groups1/7

No history0

Within the 80% range57.1 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Mark Barr USA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G2	20:08 20:52	57:59	Show details Prediction details: Mark Barr Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 40.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.91 km/h Running and total Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.68 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:52 (4:10 / km) Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 57:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:11 (34.2 km/h) Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km) Total: 57:59
2 / 1	Wim De Paepe BEL	+40 s +17 s	G1 / G1 correct	21:49 21:43	59:40	Show details Prediction details: Wim De Paepe Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 23.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 40.0 s Gap behind: 143.3 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.12 km/h Running and total Run: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:43 (4:21 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 59:40 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:11 (34.2 km/h) Run: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Total: 59:40
3 / 3	Gianluca Valori ITA	+183 s +187 s	G2 / G3	22:17 21:12	1:03:47	Show details Prediction details: Gianluca Valori Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +183 s Time: 12:59 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +187 s Fehler: -3.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 143.3 s Gap behind: 12.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.59 km/h Running and total Run: 22:17 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:12 (4:14 / km) Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:59 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:15 (33.7 km/h) Run: 22:17 (4:27 / km) Total: 1:03:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 180.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Kenshiro Nakayama JPN	+195 s +187 s	G2 / G6	25:46 26:21	1:07:16	Show details Prediction details: Kenshiro Nakayama Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +195 s Time: 13:11 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +187 s Fehler: 8.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.0 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 34.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h Running and total Run: 25:46 (5:09 / km) Historical basis: 5:05 / km Best comparable pace: 5:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:21 (5:16 / km) Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:07:16 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:11 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:15 (33.7 km/h) Run: 25:46 (5:09 / km) Total: 1:07:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:10 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 181.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4	Kyle Stepp USA	+200 s +138 s	G3 / G4	25:22 22:56	1:10:46	Show details Prediction details: Kyle Stepp Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +200 s Time: 13:16 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +138 s Fehler: 61.9 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.90 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 207.3 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.69 km/h Running and total Run: 25:22 (5:04 / km) Historical basis: 5:17 / km Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:56 (4:35 / km) Error: +2:26 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 1:10:46 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:16 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:04 (30.7 km/h) Run: 25:22 (5:04 / km) Total: 1:10:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 197 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5	Michael Herter FRA	+199 s +140 s	G3 / G5	27:46 23:33	1:13:10	Show details Prediction details: Michael Herter Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +199 s Time: 13:15 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +140 s Fehler: 58.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.89 km/h Running and total Run: 27:46 (5:33 / km) Historical basis: 5:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 23:33 (4:43 / km) Error: +4:13 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 1:13:10 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:15 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:04 (30.7 km/h) Run: 27:46 (5:33 / km) Total: 1:13:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:44 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m About 151 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Diego Alfonso Lares García MEX	+407 s +335 s	G4 / G7	27:43 25:20	1:20:47	Show details Prediction details: Diego Alfonso Lares García Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +407 s Time: 16:43 Pace: 2:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +335 s Fehler: 72.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 207.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.46 km/h Running and total Run: 27:43 (5:33 / km) Historical basis: 5:33 / km Best comparable pace: 5:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:20 (5:04 / km) Error: +2:23 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 1:20:47 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:43 (2:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:17 (27.9 km/h) Run: 27:43 (5:33 / km) Total: 1:20:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 404.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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