Prediction comparison

PTS3 Men

27.06.2026 Parc Jean Drapeau CAN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Para Series Montreal

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 399 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 27.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 37.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.0

Mean swim error326.9 s

Mean bike-speed error6.21 km/h

Correct bike groups1/8

No history0

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Stylianos Malakopoulos GRE	+149 s +0 s	G1 / G4	18:18 17:40	1:00:02	Show details Prediction details: Stylianos Malakopoulos Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +149 s Time: 6:25 Pace: 0:51 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 148.5 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 98 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 58.5 s Gap behind: 3.2 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.21 km/h Running and total Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 1:00:02 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:25 (0:51 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:23 (33.0 km/h) Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km) Total: 1:00:02
2 / 3	Valentin Hanzer GER	+152 s +611 s	G1 / G3	18:47 19:21	1:00:31	Show details Prediction details: Valentin Hanzer Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +152 s Time: 6:28 Pace: 0:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +611 s Fehler: -459.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.2 s Gap behind: 49.4 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.92 km/h Running and total Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:21 (3:52 / km) Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:00:31 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 6:28 (0:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:23 (33.0 km/h) Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Total: 1:00:31
3 / 1	Cedric Denuziere FRA	+201 s +589 s	G1 / G1 correct	20:34 19:59	1:02:18	Show details Prediction details: Cedric Denuziere Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +201 s Time: 7:17 Pace: 0:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +589 s Fehler: -387.9 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 49.4 s Gap behind: 105.9 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.31 km/h Running and total Run: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:18 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 7:17 (0:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:23 (33.0 km/h) Run: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Total: 1:02:18
4 / 6	Flip Breuer NED	+90 s +648 s	G1 / G6	22:02 21:02	1:03:46	Show details Prediction details: Flip Breuer Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +90 s Time: 5:26 Pace: 0:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +648 s Fehler: -558.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 58.5 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 34.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h Running and total Run: 22:02 (4:24 / km) Historical basis: 4:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 (4:12 / km) Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:46 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 5:26 (0:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:23 (33.0 km/h) Run: 22:02 (4:24 / km) Total: 1:03:46
5 / 7	Geoffrey Wersy FRA	+350 s +799 s	G2 / G7	21:23 20:51	1:13:16	Show details Prediction details: Geoffrey Wersy Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +350 s Time: 9:46 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +799 s Fehler: -449.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 42.5 s Gap behind: 350.5 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -8.66 km/h Running and total Run: 21:23 (4:17 / km) Historical basis: 4:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Ergebnis Lauf: 20:51 (4:10 / km) Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:13:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:04 (27.6 km/h) Run: 21:23 (4:17 / km) Total: 1:13:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 7:07 Pace: 0:57 / 100 m About 159.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +190 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8	Jonas Souza BRA	+307 s +808 s	G2 / G8	26:01 21:01	1:17:54	Show details Prediction details: Jonas Souza Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +307 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +808 s Fehler: -501.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 105.9 s Gap behind: 42.5 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 32.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.09 km/h Running and total Run: 26:01 (5:12 / km) Historical basis: 5:12 / km Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:01 (4:12 / km) Error: +5:00 / +1:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:17:54 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:04 (27.6 km/h) Run: 26:01 (5:12 / km) Total: 1:17:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:31 Pace: 0:52 / 100 m About 152.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +154.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 5	Lucas Jundt USA	+700 s +629 s	G3 / G5	23:03 18:57	1:20:33	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Jundt Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +700 s Time: 15:36 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +629 s Fehler: 71.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 350.5 s Gap behind: 17.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -7.70 km/h Running and total Run: 23:03 (4:37 / km) Historical basis: 4:37 / km Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Error: +4:06 / +0:49 / km Overall prediction: 1:20:33 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 15:36 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:33 (28.2 km/h) Run: 23:03 (4:37 / km) Total: 1:20:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:31 Pace: 0:52 / 100 m About 545.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +154.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 4	Zachary Osborne USA	+717 s +677 s	G3 / G2	23:57 20:10	1:21:27	Show details Prediction details: Zachary Osborne Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +717 s Time: 15:53 Pace: 2:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +677 s Fehler: 40.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 17.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -11.36 km/h Running and total Run: 23:57 (4:47 / km) Historical basis: 4:47 / km Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:02 / km) Error: +3:47 / +0:45 / km Overall prediction: 1:21:27 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 15:53 (2:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:33 (28.2 km/h) Run: 23:57 (4:47 / km) Total: 1:21:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 413.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +303.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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