Prediction comparison

PTS4 Men

27.06.2026 Parc Jean Drapeau CAN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Para Series Montreal

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 77/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 399 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 27.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 81.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.9 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.6

Mean swim error50.1 s

Mean bike-speed error4.06 km/h

Correct bike groups2/10

No history1

Within the 80% range54.5 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Alexis Hanquinquant FRA	+0 s +2 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:41 16:18	48:32	Show details Prediction details: Alexis Hanquinquant Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 22.7 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.63 km/h Running and total Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 48:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (40.5 km/h) Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Total: 48:32
2 / 3	Pierre-Antoine Baele FRA	+55 s +43 s	G2 / G4	16:52 16:11	52:05	Show details Prediction details: Pierre-Antoine Baele Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 10:44 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 11.6 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 23.6 s Gap behind: 5.1 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.55 km/h Running and total Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 52:05 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:14 (37.6 km/h) Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km) Total: 52:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 51.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6	Carson Clough USA	+31 s +45 s	G2 / G5	17:07 18:02	52:20	Show details Prediction details: Carson Clough Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 10:20 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: -14.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.3 s Gap behind: 23.6 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.26 km/h Running and total Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km) Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 52:20 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:14 (37.6 km/h) Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Total: 52:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 28.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Gregoire Berthon FRA	+60 s +20 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:52 18:11	54:05	Show details Prediction details: Gregoire Berthon Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 10:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 39.7 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.1 s Gap behind: 71.5 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.78 km/h Running and total Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km) Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 54:05 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:14 (37.6 km/h) Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Total: 54:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 56.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8	Hideki Uda JPN	+131 s +198 s	G3 / G6	18:16 17:28	55:35	Show details Prediction details: Hideki Uda Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +131 s Time: 12:00 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +198 s Fehler: -66.8 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 71.5 s Gap behind: 6.9 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.78 km/h Running and total Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 55:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:00 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:08 (36.7 km/h) Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Total: 55:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 128.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7	Michael Taylor GBR	+23 s +2 s	G2 / G5	21:00 19:54	56:13	Show details Prediction details: Michael Taylor Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 20.7 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.13 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.7 s Gap behind: 8.3 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 40.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.48 km/h Running and total Run: 21:00 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km) Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 56:13 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:14 (37.6 km/h) Run: 21:00 (4:12 / km) Total: 56:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 19.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 2	Antoîne Lamarche Poulain FRA	+224 s +134 s	G4 / G3	19:15 16:31	56:49	Show details Prediction details: Antoîne Lamarche Poulain Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +224 s Time: 13:33 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +134 s Fehler: 90.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 61.7 s Gap behind: 187.4 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -8.53 km/h Running and total Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Error: +2:44 / +0:33 / km Overall prediction: 56:49 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:33 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Total: 56:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 204.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10	Keiya Kaneko JPN	+138 s +231 s	G5 / G8	19:08 19:15	56:56	Show details Prediction details: Keiya Kaneko Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 6–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +138 s Time: 12:07 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +231 s Fehler: -92.9 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.9 s Gap behind: 24.3 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h Running and total Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 56:56 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:07 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:30 (36.3 km/h) Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km) Total: 56:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 135.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9	Jorge Luis Fonseca BRA	+162 s +234 s	G4 / G7	20:19 19:20	57:53	Show details Prediction details: Jorge Luis Fonseca Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 6–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +162 s Time: 12:31 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +234 s Fehler: -71.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.43 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 24.3 s Gap behind: 61.7 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.19 km/h Running and total Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.34 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 57:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:31 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (37.1 km/h) Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km) Total: 57:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 159.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 11	Isak Brenden NOR	+412 s +503 s	G6 / G9	26:38 22:03	1:12:57	Show details Prediction details: Isak Brenden Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +412 s Time: 16:41 Pace: 2:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +503 s Fehler: -91.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 187.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.71 km/h Running and total Run: 26:38 (5:20 / km) Historical basis: 5:22 / km Best comparable pace: 5:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:03 (4:25 / km) Error: +4:35 / +0:55 / km Overall prediction: 1:12:57 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 16:41 (2:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:27 (32.7 km/h) Run: 26:38 (5:20 / km) Total: 1:12:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 408.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Ronan Le bris FRA	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G5	17:48		Show details Prediction details: Ronan Le bris Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 40.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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