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PTS4 Women

27.06.2026 Parc Jean Drapeau CAN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Para Series Montreal

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 69/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 32 früheren Rennen und 353 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 54.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 27.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 32 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error65.1 s
Mean bike-speed error5.28 km/h
Correct bike groups1/2
No history0
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Emma Meyers
USA
+19 s
+115 s
G1 / G3
 26:08
24:57
 1:11:43
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Meyers

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 14:31
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +115 s
Fehler: -96.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.36 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 67.8 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:08 (5:14 / km)
Historical basis: 5:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.82 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:57 (4:59 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:43
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:31 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 45:16 (28.5 km/h)
Run: 26:08 (5:14 / km)
Total: 1:11:43
2 / 1 Danielle Cummings
USA
+87 s
+121 s
G2 / G2
correct 		25:11
22:11
 1:14:26
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Cummings

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 15:39
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +121 s
Fehler: -34.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.34 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 67.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -8.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:11 (5:02 / km)
Historical basis: 5:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.79 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:11 (4:26 / km)
Error: +3:00 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 1:14:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 15:39 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:48 (27.0 km/h)
Run: 25:11 (5:02 / km)
Total: 1:14:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:37
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
About 61.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.