Prediction comparison

PTS5 Men

27.06.2026 Parc Jean Drapeau CAN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Para Series Montreal

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 77/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 399 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 27.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 83.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 83.3 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.3

Mean swim error35.3 s

Mean bike-speed error3.20 km/h

Correct bike groups2/6

No history0

Within the 80% range33.3 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Chris Hammer USA	+126 s +108 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:48 16:13	51:01	Show details Prediction details: Chris Hammer Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +126 s Time: 11:49 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +108 s Fehler: 17.8 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.8 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.28 km/h Running and total Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 51:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:49 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (38.8 km/h) Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Total: 51:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 120.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Tom Williamson IRL	+2 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:12 18:05	51:17	Show details Prediction details: Tom Williamson Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +2 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 80 % Speed: 40.2 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.85 km/h Running and total Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 51:17 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:03 (40.2 km/h) Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km) Total: 51:17
3 / 5	Oscar Dennis KEN	+112 s +67 s	G2 / G3	18:56 18:51	54:09	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Dennis Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +112 s Time: 11:35 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: 45.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 45.1 s Gap behind: 13.8 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.78 km/h Running and total Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 54:09 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:35 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (38.8 km/h) Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km) Total: 54:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 107.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3	Ruiter Antonio Goncalves Silva BRA	+67 s +49 s	G2 / G3	20:52 17:41	56:05	Show details Prediction details: Ruiter Antonio Goncalves Silva Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 10:50 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: 17.9 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.11 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 64.9 s Gap behind: 45.1 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.79 km/h Running and total Run: 20:52 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Error: +3:11 / +0:38 / km Overall prediction: 56:05 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (38.8 km/h) Run: 20:52 (4:10 / km) Total: 56:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 62 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6	Andreas Doulappas CYP	+130 s +159 s	G3 / G5	21:35 18:34	57:25	Show details Prediction details: Andreas Doulappas Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +130 s Time: 11:53 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +159 s Fehler: -28.9 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h Running and total Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Error: +3:01 / +0:36 / km Overall prediction: 57:25 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:53 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (38.3 km/h) Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Total: 57:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 125.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Oliver Scott GBR	+2 s +102 s	G1 / G4	16:05		Show details Prediction details: Oliver Scott Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +2 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +102 s Fehler: -100.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 64.9 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:03 (40.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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Cycling

Running and total

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