Prediction comparison

PTWC Women

27.06.2026 Parc Jean Drapeau CAN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Para Series Montreal

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 94/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 32 früheren Rennen und 353 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 54.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 27.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 32 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.5

Mean swim error23.9 s

Mean bike-speed error5.53 km/h

Correct bike groups1/4

No history0

Within the 80% range100.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Kendall Gretsch H2 USA	+2 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	12:53 12:06	52:15	Show details Prediction details: Kendall Gretsch H2 Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +2 s Time: 12:41 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 32.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 96.4 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.29 km/h Running and total Run: 12:53 (2:35 / km) Historical basis: 2:39 / km Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:06 (2:25 / km) Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 52:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:41 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:20 (32.8 km/h) Run: 12:53 (2:35 / km) Total: 52:15
2 / 2	Jessica Ferreira H1 BRA	+118 s +81 s	G2 / G3	12:35 12:36	56:23	Show details Prediction details: Jessica Ferreira H1 Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +118 s Time: 14:37 Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: 37.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 19.6 s Gap behind: 17.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.98 km/h Running and total Run: 12:35 (2:31 / km) Historical basis: 2:33 / km Best comparable pace: 2:31 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:36 (2:31 / km) Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 56:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:37 (1:57 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:50 (30.6 km/h) Run: 12:35 (2:31 / km) Total: 56:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:47 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m About 110.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Leanne Taylor H1 CAN	+98 s +88 s	G2 / G4	13:28 13:14	57:16	Show details Prediction details: Leanne Taylor H1 Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +98 s Time: 14:17 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: 10.4 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 96.4 s Gap behind: 19.6 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 34.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.86 km/h Running and total Run: 13:28 (2:42 / km) Historical basis: 2:45 / km Best comparable pace: 2:38 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:14 (2:39 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 57:16 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:17 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:50 (30.6 km/h) Run: 13:28 (2:42 / km) Total: 57:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:47 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m About 90.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3	Emelia Perry H1 USA	+135 s +89 s	G3 / G2	13:22 13:29	58:25	Show details Prediction details: Emelia Perry H1 Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +135 s Time: 14:54 Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: 46.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 17.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.97 km/h Running and total Run: 13:22 (2:40 / km) Historical basis: 2:43 / km Best comparable pace: 2:42 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:29 (2:42 / km) Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 58:25 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:54 (1:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:48 (30.1 km/h) Run: 13:22 (2:40 / km) Total: 58:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:47 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m About 127.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total