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Prediction comparison

65-69 Open AG

01.03.2026 ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Winter Championships Padola

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 58.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.5
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
Details
0 / 1 Janko Železnikar
SLO
+0 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Janko Železnikar

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Urbano Ferrazzi
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Urbano Ferrazzi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Ranieri Dorella
ITA
+176 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Ranieri Dorella

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +176 s
Time:
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Joachim Rathbauer
AUT
+150 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Joachim Rathbauer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time:
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Frank Manthey
GER
+155 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Frank Manthey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +155 s
Time:
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Paolo Sacchet
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Paolo Sacchet

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Nicholas Farnell
GBR
+308 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Farnell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +308 s
Time:
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:29 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Michael Schädler
LIE
+229 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Schädler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +229 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:48 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Bojan Trojar
SLO
+353 s
G0 / G11
Show details
Prediction details: Bojan Trojar

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +353 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:15 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Philip E.c. Schädler
LIE
+174 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Philip E.c. Schädler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +174 s
Time:
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:00 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Dariusz Drapella
POL
+397 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Dariusz Drapella

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +397 s
Time:
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:41 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Gianni Alessio
ITA
+436 s
G0 / G11
Show details
Prediction details: Gianni Alessio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +436 s
Time:
Pace: 2:19 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:04 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.