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Prediction comparison

Elite Women

28.02.2026 ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Winter Championships Padola

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.02.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 9/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 17.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 11.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.5
Correct bike groups0/0
No history3
Details
0 / 1 Daria Rogozina
AIN
+0 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Daria Rogozina

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:40 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Alina Liagaeva
AIN
+0 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Alina Liagaeva

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:39 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Axelle Vicari
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Axelle Vicari

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:13 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+13 s
G0 / G4
 6:33
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time:
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.32 %, Sicherheit 0 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:33 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:46 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 6:33 (3:17 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Lorena Erl
GER
+281 s
G0 / G4
 10:06
Show details
Prediction details: Lorena Erl

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +281 s
Time:
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:06 (5:03 / km)
Historical basis: 5:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:08 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 10:06 (5:03 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Lia Garafutdinova
AIN
+0 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Lia Garafutdinova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:21 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Rosa Schmidt-Moll
AUT
+56 s
G0 / G5
 9:16
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Schmidt-Moll

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time:
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:16 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:21 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 9:16 (4:38 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Edita Pozlerova
CZE
+17 s
G0 / G5
 7:00
Show details
Prediction details: Edita Pozlerova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time:
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:00 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:04 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 7:00 (3:30 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Kristina Lapinova
SVK
+378 s
G0 / G5
 13:58
Show details
Prediction details: Kristina Lapinova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +378 s
Time:
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:58 (6:59 / km)
Historical basis: 6:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:47 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 13:58 (6:59 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Lydia Zacikova
SVK
+46 s
G0 / G6
 8:22
Show details
Prediction details: Lydia Zacikova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time:
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.30 %, Sicherheit 0 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:22 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:27 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 8:22 (4:11 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Elisabetta Stocco
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G7
 9:18
Show details
Prediction details: Elisabetta Stocco

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:18 (4:39 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:10 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 9:18 (4:39 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Kseniia Skvortsova
AIN
+0 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Kseniia Skvortsova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:20 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Ludovica Sabbia
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Ludovica Sabbia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:44 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Aiara Garaialde Zeberio
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Aiara Garaialde Zeberio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:48 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Lucía Benito Sancho
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G11
Show details
Prediction details: Lucía Benito Sancho

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:13 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Lucía Blanco Cestero
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G12
Show details
Prediction details: Lucía Blanco Cestero

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:11 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Sofía Carolina Corral Muel
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G13
Show details
Prediction details: Sofía Carolina Corral Muel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:11 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.