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PTS2 Women

02.09.2024 Paris FRA
Race information and calculation basis
Paris 2024 Paralympic Games

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 70.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.6
Mean swim error56.5 s
Mean bike-speed error2.17 km/h
Correct bike groups0/10
No history0
Within the 80% range30.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Melissa Stockwell
USA
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G5
 23:52
25:04
 1:02:53
Show details
Prediction details: Melissa Stockwell

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:23
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 16.0 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km)
Historical basis: 4:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:04 (5:01 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:23 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:45 (30.9 km/h)
Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km)
Total: 1:02:53
2 / 3 Allysa Seely
USA
+32 s
+8 s
G2 / G4
 25:21
21:47
 1:04:30
Show details
Prediction details: Allysa Seely

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 12:55
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 24.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.2 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:21 (5:04 / km)
Historical basis: 5:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.36 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Error: +3:34 / +0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:55 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:30 (31.1 km/h)
Run: 25:21 (5:04 / km)
Total: 1:04:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
3 / 1 Hailey Danz
USA
+39 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 25:45
22:49
 1:04:54
Show details
Prediction details: Hailey Danz

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 13:02
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 31.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:45 (5:09 / km)
Historical basis: 5:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:49 (4:34 / km)
Error: +2:56 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:02 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:30 (31.1 km/h)
Run: 25:45 (5:09 / km)
Total: 1:04:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:51
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
About 10.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 9 Yukako Hata
JPN
+16 s
+151 s
G1 / G8
 28:18
29:46
 1:07:19
Show details
Prediction details: Yukako Hata

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 12:39
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +151 s
Fehler: -135.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.0 s
Gap behind: 16.2 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:18 (5:40 / km)
Historical basis: 5:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:46 (5:57 / km)
Error: −1:28 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:39 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:45 (30.9 km/h)
Run: 28:18 (5:40 / km)
Total: 1:07:19
5 / 4 Anu Francis
AUS
+136 s
+94 s
G4 / G3
 24:32
23:40
 1:10:14
Show details
Prediction details: Anu Francis

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +136 s
Time: 14:39
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +94 s
Fehler: 41.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 69.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:32 (4:54 / km)
Historical basis: 4:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:40 (4:44 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:14
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:39 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:17 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 24:32 (4:54 / km)
Total: 1:10:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:06
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
About 92.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +42.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 Veronica Yoko Plebani
ITA
+111 s
+8 s
G4 / G2
 25:44
21:56
 1:11:26
Show details
Prediction details: Veronica Yoko Plebani

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +111 s
Time: 14:14
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 103.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.4 s
Gap behind: 20.6 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:44 (5:09 / km)
Historical basis: 5:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 (4:23 / km)
Error: +3:48 / +0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:26
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:14 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:17 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 25:44 (5:09 / km)
Total: 1:11:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:59
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
About 75.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Neele Ludwig
GER
+91 s
+146 s
G4 / G7
 25:59
27:33
 1:11:41
Show details
Prediction details: Neele Ludwig

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 13:54
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +146 s
Fehler: -55.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 45.2 s
Gap behind: 20.4 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:59 (5:12 / km)
Historical basis: 5:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:33 (5:31 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:41
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:54 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:17 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 25:59 (5:12 / km)
Total: 1:11:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:59
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
About 54.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Emma Juaisca Rodriguez Rodriguez
VEN
+205 s
+205 s
G4 / G6
 27:27
24:27
 1:13:09
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Juaisca Rodriguez Rodriguez

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +205 s
Time: 15:48
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +205 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 69.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:27 (5:29 / km)
Historical basis: 5:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:27 (4:53 / km)
Error: +3:00 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:09
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:48 (2:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:17 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 27:27 (5:29 / km)
Total: 1:13:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:59
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
About 168.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Rakel Mateo Uriarte
ESP
+46 s
+141 s
G3 / G9
 31:29
34:53
 1:16:40
Show details
Prediction details: Rakel Mateo Uriarte

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 13:09
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +141 s
Fehler: -95.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 27.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 45.2 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 26.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:29 (6:18 / km)
Historical basis: 6:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:53 (6:59 / km)
Error: −3:24 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:26 (27.0 km/h)
Run: 31:29 (6:18 / km)
Total: 1:16:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:59
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Cécile Saboureau
FRA
+132 s
+53 s
G4 / G5
25:41
Show details
Prediction details: Cécile Saboureau

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +132 s
Time: 14:35
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 79.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.6 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:41 (5:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 14:35 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:17 (27.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:59
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
About 95.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.