Prediction comparison

Elite Men

17.12.2011 Le Morne Public Beach MRI

Race information and calculation basis

2011 Le Morne ITU Triathlon African Cup

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.12.2011 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.0

Mean swim error33.2 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

				Details
0 / 1	Faquan Bai CHN	+42 s +6 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Faquan Bai Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 36.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 32:44 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Lukas Hollaus AUT	+108 s +44 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Hollaus Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +108 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 64.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 33:23 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Jens Toft DEN	+25 s +0 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Jens Toft Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 25.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 34:14 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Travis Johnston RSA	+125 s +52 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Travis Johnston Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +125 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 73.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 33:26 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Theo Blignaut RSA	+48 s +37 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Theo Blignaut Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 11.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:58 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Rudolf Naude RSA	+33 s +37 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Rudolf Naude Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -4.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:18 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Valery De Falbaire MRI	+6 s +3 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Valery De Falbaire Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 3.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:14 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Jae Hun Choi KOR	+48 s +56 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Jae Hun Choi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -8.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:05 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Hyun Min Lee KOR	+61 s +62 s	G0 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Hyun Min Lee Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: -1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:11 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Jung Min Park KOR	+61 s +52 s	G0 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Jung Min Park Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 9.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:48 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Julien Agathe MRI	+120 s +251 s	G0 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Julien Agathe Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +120 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +251 s Fehler: -131.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:08 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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