Prediction comparison

Elite Women

15.10.2022 First Beach, Stockton, MO 65785 USA

Race information and calculation basis

2022 Americas Triathlon Cup Stockton

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.10.2022 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 47.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error11.0

Mean swim error16.5 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Noemie Beaulieu CAN	+24 s +12 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Noemie Beaulieu Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 12.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Natalia Casas MEX	+35 s +26 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Natalia Casas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 9.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Adriana Barraza MEX	+34 s +13 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Adriana Barraza Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 21.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Annie Kelly USA	+64 s +34 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Annie Kelly Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 30.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lydia Russell USA	+26 s +30 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Lydia Russell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: -4.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Brittany Warly CAN	+46 s +38 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Brittany Warly Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: 8.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Colette Reimer CAN	+29 s +40 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Colette Reimer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -11.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Sophia Howell CAN	+13 s +2 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Sophia Howell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 11.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Tanja Stroschneider AUT	+40 s +10 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Tanja Stroschneider Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 30.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Desirae Ridenour CAN	+38 s +3 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Desirae Ridenour Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 35.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Karla Patricia Ruiz Gaona MEX	+33 s +30 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Karla Patricia Ruiz Gaona Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 3.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Britney Brown TRI	+11 s +0 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Britney Brown Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 11.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Madisen Lavin USA	+15 s +11 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Madisen Lavin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 4.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Maïra Carreau CAN	+21 s +29 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Maïra Carreau Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: -8.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:29 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15	Henrika Parviainen FIN	+42 s +20 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Henrika Parviainen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 22.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (15 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:14 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16	Grace Walther USA	+35 s +55 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Grace Walther Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -20.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:10 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17	Ana Sofia Coboj Rivera MEX	+58 s +74 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Ana Sofia Coboj Rivera Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +74 s Fehler: -16.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18	Michelle Stratton USA	+0 s +37 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Michelle Stratton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -37.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19	Laura Mathews USA	+101 s +84 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Laura Mathews Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +84 s Fehler: 17.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:55 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20	Shelby Lajeunesse CAN	+59 s +47 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Shelby Lajeunesse Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 12.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:46 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21	Michelle Mehnert USA	+21 s +46 s	G0 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Michelle Mehnert Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -25.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:39 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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