Prediction comparison
PTWC Men
24.11.2022
Abu Dhabi
UAE
Race information and calculation basis
2022 World Triathlon Para Championships Abu Dhabi
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.11.2022 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
20/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.0
Mean swim error62.8 s
Mean bike-speed error33.53 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 / 1 |
Jetze Plat H2
NED
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G0 / G1
|
11:22
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -38.36 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:22 (2:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 2 |
Florian Brungraber H2
AUT
|
+42 s
+39 s
|
G0 / G2
|
11:43
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +42 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.70 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:43 (2:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 3 |
Geert Schipper H2
NED
|
+60 s
+92 s
|
G0 / G3
|
12:09
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +60 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: -32.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -37.62 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:09 (2:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 4 |
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Giovanni Achenza H1
ITA
|
+127 s
+135 s
|
G0 / G4
|
13:56
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +127 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +135 s
Fehler: -8.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -33.28 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:56 (2:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 5 |
Fathi Zwoukhi H1
TUN
|
+0 s
+141 s
|
G0 / G6
|
12:30
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +141 s
Fehler: -141.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -32.02 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:30 (2:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 6 |
Jumpei Kimura H1
JPN
|
+137 s
+138 s
|
G0 / G5
|
13:50
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +137 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +138 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -32.88 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:50 (2:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 7 |
Nic Beveridge H1
AUS
|
+0 s
+102 s
|
G0 / G7
|
13:31
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +102 s
Fehler: -102.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.96 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:31 (2:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 8 |
Zachary Stinson H2
USA
|
+126 s
+217 s
|
G0 / G4
|
13:59
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +126 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +217 s
Fehler: -91.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -34.99 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:59 (2:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 9 |
Howie Sanborn H1
USA
|
+215 s
+147 s
|
G0 / G9
|
14:31
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +215 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +147 s
Fehler: 68.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.47 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:31 (2:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 10 |
Fernando Aranha H2
BRA
|
+0 s
+202 s
|
G0 / G8
|
14:40
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +202 s
Fehler: -202.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.76 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 11 |
Eslam Ali H1
EGY
|
+322 s
+365 s
|
G0 / G10
|
20:04
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +322 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +365 s
Fehler: -43.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -27.81 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:04 (4:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|