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Elite Women

13.05.2023 Punta Cana DOM
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Americas Triathlon Cup and Central America and Caribbean Championships Punta Cana

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 43/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 46.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.2
Mean swim error48.9 s
Mean bike-speed error4.43 km/h
Correct bike groups1/25
No history0
Within the 80% range26.9 %
Details
1 / 9 Leslie Amat Alvarez
CUB
+48 s
+8 s
G4 / G3
 18:35
16:37
 50:49
Show details
Prediction details: Leslie Amat Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 7:50
Pace: 1:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 40.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 8.5 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:58 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 50:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:50 (1:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 41.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Katie Zaferes
USA
+76 s
+0 s
G6 / G2
 17:51
15:13
 51:29
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Zaferes

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 8:18
Pace: 1:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 75.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:00 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:18 (1:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:31 / km)
Total: 51:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 68.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Raquel Solis
CRC
+61 s
+12 s
G5 / G3
 18:49
16:30
 51:36
Show details
Prediction details: Raquel Solis

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 8:03
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 49.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:15 / km)
Error: +2:19 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 51:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:03 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 54.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 16 Isabel Rodriguez Silverio
CUB
+57 s
+36 s
G4 / G3
 19:50
17:38
 52:04
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Rodriguez Silverio

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 7:59
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 20.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.5 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:50 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:28 / km)
Error: +2:12 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 52:04
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 7:59 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 19:50 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 49.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Anahi Alvarez Corral
MEX
+108 s
+52 s
G8 / G3
 16:49
14:24
 52:07
Show details
Prediction details: Anahi Alvarez Corral

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 55.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 14.1 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:24 (2:50 / km)
Error: +2:25 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 52:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:30 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:18 / km)
Total: 52:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 100.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 12 Catalina Torres Espinoza
CRC
+47 s
+33 s
G4 / G3
 19:55
17:06
 52:09
Show details
Prediction details: Catalina Torres Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 7:49
Pace: 1:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:55 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:06 (3:22 / km)
Error: +2:49 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 52:09
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 7:49 (1:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 19:55 (3:55 / km)
Total: 52:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 40.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 19 Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños
GUA
+77 s
+61 s
G6 / G4
 18:52
17:10
 52:30
Show details
Prediction details: Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 8:19
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 16.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:52 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:23 / km)
Error: +1:42 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 52:30
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:19 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:52 (3:43 / km)
Total: 52:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 70.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8 Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior
VEN
+73 s
+39 s
G6 / G3
 18:55
16:35
 52:33
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 8:15
Pace: 1:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 34.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:55 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:16 / km)
Error: +2:20 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 52:33
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:15 (1:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:55 (3:43 / km)
Total: 52:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 66.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 3 Dominika Jamnicky
CAN
+105 s
+26 s
G8 / G3
 18:08
14:19
 53:26
Show details
Prediction details: Dominika Jamnicky

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 78.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:19 (2:49 / km)
Error: +3:49 / +0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 53:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:30 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:34 / km)
Total: 53:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 97.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 18 Maïra Carreau
CAN
+69 s
+31 s
G6 / G3
 19:51
18:49
 53:29
Show details
Prediction details: Maïra Carreau

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 8:11
Pace: 1:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 38.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:51 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:42 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 53:29
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:11 (1:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 19:51 (3:54 / km)
Total: 53:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 62.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Antoanela Manac
ROU
+89 s
+41 s
G7 / G3
 18:22
16:55
 53:35
Show details
Prediction details: Antoanela Manac

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–20
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 8:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 48.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.2 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:20 / km)
Error: +1:27 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 53:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 18:22 (3:37 / km)
Total: 53:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 82.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 22 Michelle Stratton
USA
+81 s
+68 s
G6 / G4
 20:04
18:42
 53:42
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Stratton

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 8:23
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:04 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:41 / km)
Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 53:42
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:23 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 20:04 (3:57 / km)
Total: 53:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 73.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 5 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+105 s
+36 s
G8 / G3
 18:27
15:49
 53:45
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–17
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 68.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.05 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:27 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:07 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 53:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:30 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 18:27 (3:38 / km)
Total: 53:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 97.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Sophia Howell
CAN
+69 s
+6 s
G6 / G3
 20:12
16:45
 53:50
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Howell

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 8:11
Pace: 1:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 63.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:12 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (3:18 / km)
Error: +3:27 / +0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 53:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:11 (1:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 20:12 (3:58 / km)
Total: 53:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 62.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 24 Ashley Smith
USA
+83 s
+71 s
G6 / G6
correct 		20:22 54:00
Show details
Prediction details: Ashley Smith

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 8:25
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 6.2 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:22 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 54:00
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 8:25 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 20:22 (4:00 / km)
Total: 54:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 76.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 15 Sara Roel
MEX
+98 s
+38 s
G8 / G3
 18:49
17:33
 54:07
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Roel

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–19
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 60.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.5 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:27 / km)
Error: +1:16 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 54:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:30 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:42 / km)
Total: 54:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 91.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 6 Kamille Larocque
CAN
+93 s
+28 s
G7 / G3
 19:29
16:13
 54:42
Show details
Prediction details: Kamille Larocque

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +93 s
Time: 8:35
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 64.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 5.5 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:13 (3:11 / km)
Error: +3:16 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 54:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:35 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:50 / km)
Total: 54:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 85.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes
GUA
+102 s
G8 / G1
 20:01 55:19
Show details
Prediction details: Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 19–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +102 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:01 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 55:19
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:30 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 20:01 (3:56 / km)
Total: 55:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 95.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17 Freya McKinley
USA
+122 s
+43 s
G9 / G3
 20:51
17:57
 56:34
Show details
Prediction details: Freya McKinley

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 22–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +122 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 78.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:51 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:32 / km)
Error: +2:54 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 56:34
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 20:51 (4:06 / km)
Total: 56:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 115 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 23 Lizeth Lopez Ortega
MEX
+144 s
+72 s
G10 / G5
 19:38
18:54
 56:36
Show details
Prediction details: Lizeth Lopez Ortega

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +144 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 72.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.08 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 10 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.8 s
Gap behind: 73.6 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:38 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 56:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:34 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 19:38 (3:52 / km)
Total: 56:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 137.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 13 Niuska Figueredo Bringa
CUB
+124 s
+36 s
G9 / G3
 21:15
17:08
 56:58
Show details
Prediction details: Niuska Figueredo Bringa

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 22–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +124 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 87.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 20.8 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:15 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:22 / km)
Error: +4:07 / +0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 56:58
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 21:15 (4:11 / km)
Total: 56:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 116.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 26 Lydia Musleh
JOR
+218 s
+65 s
G11 / G5
 22:40
24:05
 1:01:56
Show details
Prediction details: Lydia Musleh

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +218 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 153.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 11 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 73.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:40 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:05 (4:44 / km)
Error: −1:25 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:56
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:38 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 22:40 (4:27 / km)
Total: 1:01:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 211.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Mercedes Romero Orozco
MEX
+77 s
 Bike DNF 18:19
Show details
Prediction details: Mercedes Romero Orozco

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 8:19
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:19 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:19 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:19 (3:36 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Desirae Ridenour
CAN
+3 s
+5 s
G1 / G3
17:25
Show details
Prediction details: Desirae Ridenour

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 7:05
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: -2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 24.0 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:05 (0:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 21 Julia Maria Alcala Rosales
HON
+36 s
+49 s
G3 / G4
17:55
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Maria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 7:38
Pace: 1:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -13.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:38 (1:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Melissa Rios
PUR
+27 s
+42 s
G2 / G6
19:16
Show details
Prediction details: Melissa Rios

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 7:29
Pace: 1:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -15.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 24.0 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:29 (1:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:09
Pace: 0:57 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.