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PTWC Men

12.03.2023 Sarasota USA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Sarasota

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.03.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.3
Mean swim error78.0 s
Mean bike-speed error4.34 km/h
Correct bike groups0/3
No history2
Within the 80% range60.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Zachary Stinson H2
USA
+105 s
+31 s
G1 / G2
 13:59
14:35
 49:35
Show details
Prediction details: Zachary Stinson H2

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 8:37
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 74.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 74.1 s
Gap behind: 41.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:59 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:35
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 8:37 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (31.4 km/h)
Run: 13:59 (2:48 / km)
Total: 49:35
2 / 3 Fernando Aranha H2
BRA
+31 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 14:40
14:53
 50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Fernando Aranha H2

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 7:23
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 31.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 74.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:23 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (31.4 km/h)
Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Total: 50:16
3 / 1 Howie Sanborn H1
USA
+147 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 14:31
13:08
 52:34
Show details
Prediction details: Howie Sanborn H1

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +147 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 129.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 41.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:31 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:08 (2:38 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 52:34
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:36 (30.8 km/h)
Run: 14:31 (2:54 / km)
Total: 52:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Francisco Postlethwaite Muñoz H1
MEX
+0 s
+130 s
G0 / G4
16:00
Show details
Prediction details: Francisco Postlethwaite Muñoz H1

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:52
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +130 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 24.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:52 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Leo Sammarelli H1
CAN
+0 s
+708 s
G0 / G5
19:00
Show details
Prediction details: Leo Sammarelli H1

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:52
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +708 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:52 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.