Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

45-49 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 24/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 7.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 46.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.6
Mean swim error59.5 s
Mean bike-speed error13.23 km/h
Correct bike groups0/10
No history3
Within the 80% range7.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Albert Torres Carles
ESP
+87 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 43:26
23:23
 1:14:37
Show details
Prediction details: Albert Torres Carles

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 15:47
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 87.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 55.6 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 16.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:26 (7:14 / km)
Historical basis: 7:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:23 (3:54 / km)
Error: +20:03 / +3:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:14:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:47 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:44 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 43:26 (7:14 / km)
Total: 1:14:37
2 / 1 Nicolas Durin
FRA
+145 s
+72 s
G2 / G1
 24:55
20:55
 1:20:30
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Durin

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +145 s
Time: 16:45
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 72.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 22.3 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 19.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:55 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.59 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (3:29 / km)
Error: +4:00 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 1:20:30
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:45 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 24:55 (4:09 / km)
Total: 1:20:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
About 74.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Luca Cucciniello
ITA
+143 s
+65 s
G2 / G7
 30:10
24:29
 1:25:45
Show details
Prediction details: Luca Cucciniello

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +143 s
Time: 16:43
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 77.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 55.6 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 15.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:10 (5:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.59 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:29 (4:05 / km)
Error: +5:41 / +0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:45
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:43 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 30:10 (5:02 / km)
Total: 1:25:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:51
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 51.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +90.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5 Jonathan Heasman
GBR
+225 s
+244 s
G2 / G5
 31:39
25:15
 1:27:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Heasman

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +225 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +244 s
Fehler: -19.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 57.6 s
Gap behind: 36.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 16.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:39 (5:16 / km)
Historical basis: 5:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.59 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:15 (4:13 / km)
Error: +6:24 / +1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 31:39 (5:16 / km)
Total: 1:27:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:51
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 133.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +90.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 13 Kevin Morice
GBR
+261 s
+260 s
G2 / G13
 31:52
26:28
 1:27:27
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Morice

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +261 s
Time: 18:41
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +260 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 36.4 s
Gap behind: 115.1 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 11.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:52 (5:19 / km)
Historical basis: 5:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.59 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:28 (4:25 / km)
Error: +5:24 / +0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:41 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 31:52 (5:19 / km)
Total: 1:27:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:51
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 170 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +90.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Simone Bevilacqua
ITA
+167 s
+109 s
G2 / G8
 33:08
28:27
 1:28:43
Show details
Prediction details: Simone Bevilacqua

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +167 s
Time: 17:07
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +109 s
Fehler: 57.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.3 s
Gap behind: 57.6 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:08 (5:31 / km)
Historical basis: 5:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.59 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:27 (4:45 / km)
Error: +4:41 / +0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:43
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:07 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 33:08 (5:31 / km)
Total: 1:28:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:51
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 76 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +90.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Stefano Crotti
ITA
+0 s
+172 s
G0 / G3
22:38
Show details
Prediction details: Stefano Crotti

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +172 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:38 (3:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Marco Schiapparelli
ITA
+0 s
+132 s
G0 / G4
21:26
Show details
Prediction details: Marco Schiapparelli

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +132 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 16.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:26 (3:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Jerome Fourcade
FRA
+66 s
+57 s
G1 / G6
25:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jerome Fourcade

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 15:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 15.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 25.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:48 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:44 (41.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Stefano Bogetto
ITA
+456 s
+292 s
G2 / G9
27:33
Show details
Prediction details: Stefano Bogetto

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +456 s
Time: 21:56
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +292 s
Fehler: 164.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 59.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 14.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:33 (4:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 21:56 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:51
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 365.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +90.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Richard Brodský
SVK
+0 s
+269 s
G0 / G11
28:11
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Brodský

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +269 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 13.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:11 (4:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Michele Zausa
ITA
+397 s
+299 s
G2 / G10
28:33
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Zausa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +397 s
Time: 20:57
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +299 s
Fehler: 98.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 59.0 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 13.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:33 (4:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 20:57 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:51
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 306.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +90.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Robert Flack
GBR
+376 s
+384 s
G2 / G12
30:21
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Flack

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +376 s
Time: 20:36
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +384 s
Fehler: -8.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 115.1 s
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 13.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:21 (5:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 20:36 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:59 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:51
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 285.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +90.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.