Prediction comparison

60-64 Male AG

08.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 36.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.5

Mean bike-speed error14.52 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Pio Moro ITA	+352 s	G0 / G1	23:34	Show details Prediction details: Pio Moro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +352 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 16.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -16.14 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:34 (7:51 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Ranieri Dorella ITA	+113 s	G0 / G2	32:38 23:37	Show details Prediction details: Ranieri Dorella Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +113 s Time: Pace: 1:46 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.42 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 15.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -15.86 km/h Running and total Run: 32:38 (5:26 / km) Historical basis: 5:22 / km Best comparable pace: 5:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:37 (7:52 / km) Error: +9:01 / −2:26 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:38 (5:26 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Janko Železnikar SLO	+0 s	G0 / G3	51:44 23:54	Show details Prediction details: Janko Železnikar Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 15.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -15.07 km/h Running and total Run: 51:44 (8:37 / km) Historical basis: 8:50 / km Best comparable pace: 8:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:54 (7:58 / km) Error: +27:50 / +0:39 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 51:44 (8:37 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Ivo Grabmuller CZE	+280 s	G0 / G4	34:04 23:57	Show details Prediction details: Ivo Grabmuller Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +280 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 14.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.93 km/h Running and total Run: 34:04 (5:41 / km) Historical basis: 5:32 / km Best comparable pace: 5:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:57 (7:59 / km) Error: +10:07 / −2:18 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:04 (5:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Santi Ribot Terricabras ESP	+0 s	G0 / G4	24:38	Show details Prediction details: Santi Ribot Terricabras Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 15.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -15.25 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:38 (8:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Paolo Bonacina ITA	+1,542 s	G0 / G5	24:21	Show details Prediction details: Paolo Bonacina Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,542 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 14.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.70 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:21 (8:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Joachim Rathbauer AUT	+311 s	G0 / G6	30:43 25:50	Show details Prediction details: Joachim Rathbauer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +311 s Time: Pace: 1:49 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.40 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 14.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.72 km/h Running and total Run: 30:43 (5:07 / km) Historical basis: 5:07 / km Best comparable pace: 5:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:50 (8:37 / km) Error: +4:53 / −3:30 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 30:43 (5:07 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Kevin Sexton GBR	+0 s	G0 / G7	26:57	Show details Prediction details: Kevin Sexton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 14.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -13.99 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:57 (8:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Bruce Ferguson GBR	+0 s	G0 / G8	27:33	Show details Prediction details: Bruce Ferguson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 13.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -13.35 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:33 (9:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	John Taylor GBR	+486 s	G0 / G9	26:24	Show details Prediction details: John Taylor Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +486 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 11.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -11.21 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:24 (8:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	John Day GBR	+0 s	G0 / G10	31:39	Show details Prediction details: John Day Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 9.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:39 (10:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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