Prediction comparison

Elite Men

29.09.2023 Hangzhou CHN

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Hangzhou Asian Games

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 52/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 64.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.1

Mean swim error59.4 s

Mean bike-speed error1.33 km/h

Correct bike groups7/17

No history0

Within the 80% range64.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Kenji Nener JPN	+36 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	30:31 35:34	1:28:10	Show details Prediction details: Kenji Nener Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 16:52 Pace: 1:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 35.7 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h Running and total Run: 30:31 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:34 (3:33 / km) Error: −5:03 / −0:30 / km Overall prediction: 1:28:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:52 (1:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:47 (42.3 km/h) Run: 30:31 (3:03 / km) Total: 1:28:10
2 / 2	Makoto Odakura JPN	+52 s +2 s	G1 / G2	31:39 33:18	1:29:18	Show details Prediction details: Makoto Odakura Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 17:08 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 49.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 55 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 15.6 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h Running and total Run: 31:39 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:18 (3:20 / km) Error: −1:39 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:29:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:08 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:47 (42.3 km/h) Run: 31:39 (3:10 / km) Total: 1:29:18
3 / 6	Temirlan Temirov KAZ	+36 s +53 s	G1 / G3	33:09 34:56	1:30:48	Show details Prediction details: Temirlan Temirov Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 16:52 Pace: 1:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -17.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 15.6 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.34 km/h Running and total Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:56 (3:30 / km) Error: −1:47 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:30:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:52 (1:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:47 (42.3 km/h) Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km) Total: 1:30:48
4 / 7	Junjie Fan CHN	+57 s +5 s	G2 / G2 correct	31:47 38:09	1:32:25	Show details Prediction details: Junjie Fan Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 17:13 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 52.2 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h Running and total Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:09 (3:49 / km) Error: −6:22 / −0:38 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:13 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:37 (40.3 km/h) Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km) Total: 1:32:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:03 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m About 9.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Jason Tai Long Ng HKG	+61 s +5 s	G2 / G2 correct	32:36 35:11	1:33:14	Show details Prediction details: Jason Tai Long Ng Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 17:17 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 56.2 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 81 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 17.3 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h Running and total Run: 32:36 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 63 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:11 (3:31 / km) Error: −2:35 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:17 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:37 (40.3 km/h) Run: 32:36 (3:16 / km) Total: 1:33:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:11 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 5.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4	Mingxu Li CHN	+56 s +4 s	G2 / G2 correct	33:36 34:55	1:34:14	Show details Prediction details: Mingxu Li Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 2–8 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 4 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 51.9 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 65 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 33:36 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:55 (3:30 / km) Error: −1:19 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 1:34:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:12 (1:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:37 (40.3 km/h) Run: 33:36 (3:22 / km) Total: 1:34:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 0.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 3	Ayan Beisenbayev KAZ	+80 s +2 s	G3 / G2	32:59 33:57	1:36:25	Show details Prediction details: Ayan Beisenbayev Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: 17:36 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 77.6 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -1.55 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 38.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h Running and total Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:57 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:58 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:36 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:06 (38.6 km/h) Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km) Total: 1:36:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:04 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m About 32.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10	Fernando José Casares Tan PHI	+133 s +183 s	G4 / G5	33:52 38:02	1:38:24	Show details Prediction details: Fernando José Casares Tan Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 8–12 Top-10 probability: 76 % Result: 10 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +133 s Time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +183 s Fehler: -50.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 31.6 s Gap behind: 6.8 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h Running and total Run: 33:52 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:02 (3:48 / km) Error: −4:10 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:29 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:13 (38.7 km/h) Run: 33:52 (3:23 / km) Total: 1:38:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 77.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 13	Andrew Remolino PHI	+88 s +183 s	G4 / G5	34:56 41:51	1:39:28	Show details Prediction details: Andrew Remolino Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 13 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +88 s Time: 17:44 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +183 s Fehler: -95.3 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 13.7 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h Running and total Run: 34:56 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:51 (4:11 / km) Error: −6:55 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:44 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:13 (38.7 km/h) Run: 34:56 (3:30 / km) Total: 1:39:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 32.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 8	Arslon Tursunov UZB	+140 s +120 s	G4 / G4 correct	35:33 36:45	1:40:05	Show details Prediction details: Arslon Tursunov Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–12 Top-10 probability: 45 % Result: 8 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +140 s Time: 18:36 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: 19.8 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.8 s Gap behind: 27.5 s Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.62 km/h Running and total Run: 35:33 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:45 (3:41 / km) Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:36 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:13 (38.7 km/h) Run: 35:33 (3:33 / km) Total: 1:40:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 84.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9	Rashif Amila Yaqin INA	+84 s +55 s	G4 / G3	35:52 37:47	1:40:24	Show details Prediction details: Rashif Amila Yaqin Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 9–11 Top-10 probability: 75 % Result: 9 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 17:40 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 28.9 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.23 km/h Running and total Run: 35:52 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:47 (3:47 / km) Error: −1:55 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:24 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:13 (38.7 km/h) Run: 35:52 (3:35 / km) Total: 1:40:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 28.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 17	Abdulaziz Alduaij KUW	+182 s +363 s	G5 / G7	36:06 47:26	1:43:15	Show details Prediction details: Abdulaziz Alduaij Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 11–14 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +182 s Time: 19:18 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +363 s Fehler: -180.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.9 s Gap behind: 16.7 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.55 km/h Running and total Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:26 (4:45 / km) Error: −11:20 / −1:08 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:15 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 19:18 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:50 (37.5 km/h) Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km) Total: 1:43:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:11 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 126.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12	Man Kit Chao MAC	+79 s +119 s	G3 / G4	40:32 42:31	1:43:58	Show details Prediction details: Man Kit Chao Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 12–14 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 12 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +79 s Time: 17:35 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: -40.5 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 38.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 17.3 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h Running and total Run: 40:32 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 45 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:31 (4:15 / km) Error: −1:59 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:35 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:06 (38.6 km/h) Run: 40:32 (4:03 / km) Total: 1:43:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 23 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 11	Chin Wa Wong MAC	+199 s +120 s	G5 / G4	37:39 40:24	1:44:48	Show details Prediction details: Chin Wa Wong Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 11–15 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 11 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +199 s Time: 19:35 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: 78.9 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.7 s Gap behind: 187.3 s Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h Running and total Run: 37:39 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:24 (4:02 / km) Error: −2:45 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:35 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:50 (37.5 km/h) Run: 37:39 (3:46 / km) Total: 1:44:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:12 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 143.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 16	Abdallah Abushabab PLE	+101 s +102 s	G4 / G5	42:42 46:01	1:47:14	Show details Prediction details: Abdallah Abushabab Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 14–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +102 s Fehler: -0.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.7 s Gap behind: 31.6 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h Running and total Run: 42:42 (4:16 / km) Historical basis: 4:16 / km Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 46:01 (4:36 / km) Error: −3:19 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 1:47:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:57 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:13 (38.7 km/h) Run: 42:42 (4:16 / km) Total: 1:47:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:11 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 45.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 15	Saud Alzaabi UAE	+386 s +548 s	G6 / G6 correct	39:35 39:46	1:49:20	Show details Prediction details: Saud Alzaabi Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 15–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +386 s Time: 22:42 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +548 s Fehler: -161.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 187.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 39:35 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:46 (3:59 / km) Error: −0:11 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:20 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:42 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:19 (37.9 km/h) Run: 39:35 (3:57 / km) Total: 1:49:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:11 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 330.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 14	Temirlan Abdrakhimov KGZ	+167 s +180 s	G5 / G5 correct	43:23 43:44	1:50:32	Show details Prediction details: Temirlan Abdrakhimov Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 15–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +167 s Time: 19:03 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +180 s Fehler: -12.7 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 27.5 s Gap behind: 14.9 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h Running and total Run: 43:23 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:22 / km Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 43:44 (4:22 / km) Error: −0:21 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:50:32 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:03 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:50 (37.5 km/h) Run: 43:23 (4:20 / km) Total: 1:50:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:11 Pace: 1:09 / 100 m About 111.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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