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PTS4 Women

30.04.2023 Busselton AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Oceania Triathlon Para Cup Busselton

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.04.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 45/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error54.5 s
Mean bike-speed error2.70 km/h
Correct bike groups1/2
No history0
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Sally Pilbeam
AUS
+0 s
+109 s
G1 / G2
 26:05
21:49
 1:03:30
Show details
Prediction details: Sally Pilbeam

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:41
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +109 s
Fehler: -109.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:05 (5:13 / km)
Historical basis: 5:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km)
Error: +4:16 / +0:51 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:41 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:25 (31.1 km/h)
Run: 26:05 (5:13 / km)
Total: 1:03:30
0 / 2 Hannah MacDougall
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct
32:43
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah MacDougall

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:41
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:43 (6:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:41 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:25 (31.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable