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75-79 Female AG

24.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 30/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.8
Mean swim error108.2 s
Mean bike-speed error2.48 km/h
Correct bike groups1/5
No history0
Within the 80% range20.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Inge Stettner
GER
+55 s
+170 s
G1 / G2
 58:36
1:02:16
 2:30:20
Show details
Prediction details: Inge Stettner

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 35:15
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +170 s
Fehler: -115.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 25.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 55.0 s
Gap behind: 172.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 24.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 58:36 (5:52 / km)
Historical basis: 5:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:02:16 (6:14 / km)
Error: −3:40 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 2:30:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 35:15 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:30:49 (25.9 km/h)
Run: 58:36 (5:52 / km)
Total: 2:30:20
2 / 2 Mary Hager
USA
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		1:23:07
1:11:44
 2:54:51
Show details
Prediction details: Mary Hager

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 34:20
Pace: 2:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 25.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 55.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 25.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:23:07 (8:19 / km)
Historical basis: 8:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:11:44 (7:10 / km)
Error: +11:23 / +1:08 / km
Overall prediction: 2:54:51
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 34:20 (2:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:30:49 (25.9 km/h)
Run: 1:23:07 (8:19 / km)
Total: 2:54:51
3 / 5 Sandra Abrams
GBR
+227 s
+13 s
G2 / G5
 1:23:13
1:12:09
 3:02:43
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Abrams

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +227 s
Time: 38:07
Pace: 2:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 214.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 172.0 s
Gap behind: 91.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 19.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:23:13 (8:19 / km)
Historical basis: 8:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:12:09 (7:13 / km)
Error: +11:04 / +1:06 / km
Overall prediction: 3:02:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 38:07 (2:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:27:25 (25.2 km/h)
Run: 1:23:13 (8:19 / km)
Total: 3:02:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 34:24
Pace: 2:18 / 100 m
About 223.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Deborah Bliss
USA
+725 s
+645 s
G2 / G3
1:13:50
Show details
Prediction details: Deborah Bliss

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +725 s
Time: 46:25
Pace: 3:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +645 s
Fehler: 80.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 407.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 22.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:13:50 (7:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 46:25 (3:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:27:25 (25.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 38:03
Pace: 2:32 / 100 m
About 502.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +222.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Chary Griffin
USA
+318 s
+450 s
G2 / G4
1:14:21
Show details
Prediction details: Chary Griffin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +318 s
Time: 39:38
Pace: 2:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +450 s
Fehler: -132.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 91.0 s
Gap behind: 407.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 21.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:14:21 (7:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 39:38 (2:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:27:25 (25.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 38:03
Pace: 2:32 / 100 m
About 95.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +222.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.