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Elite Women

08.06.2024 Ixtapa MEX
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Americas Triathlon Cup Ixtapa

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 65.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 89.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.4
Mean swim error33.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.34 km/h
Correct bike groups9/36
No history2
Within the 80% range31.6 %
Details
1 / 2 Cecilia Perez
MEX
+45 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:26
18:02
 50:01
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Perez

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 36.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 50:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 6.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 10 Marcela Alvarez Solis
MEX
+44 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:57
18:56
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Marcela Alvarez Solis

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 34.0 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Naomi Ruff
USA
+32 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 18:14
18:10
 50:34
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 17.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 1.03 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:34
4 / 13 Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott
USA
+51 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:02
19:40
 50:37
Show details
Prediction details: Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 23.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 50:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 12.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+50 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:34
17:54
 51:09
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 20.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11 Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños
GUA
+53 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:38
18:47
 51:13
Show details
Prediction details: Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 21.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:13
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Total: 51:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Anahi Alvarez Corral
MEX
+77 s
+63 s
G4 / G3
 16:23
17:10
 51:30
Show details
Prediction details: Anahi Alvarez Corral

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 7.2 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 51:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 38.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 3 Mercedes Romero Orozco
MEX
+48 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 19:02
18:23
 51:37
Show details
Prediction details: Mercedes Romero Orozco

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 38.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Total: 51:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +46.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12 Madisen Lavin
USA
+35 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 19:54
19:16
 52:14
Show details
Prediction details: Madisen Lavin

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 34.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 52:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Total: 52:14
10 / 8 Colette Reimer
CAN
+57 s
+43 s
G3 / G2
 19:09
18:23
 52:22
Show details
Prediction details: Colette Reimer

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–17
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Total: 52:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 18.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 29 Isabella Carreras Bayardo
MEX
+61 s
+41 s
G3 / G5
 19:17
21:24
 52:30
Show details
Prediction details: Isabella Carreras Bayardo

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 20.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:24 (4:17 / km)
Error: −2:07 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 52:30
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Total: 52:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 22.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 30 Natalia Cortés Gonzalez
MEX
+40 s
+39 s
G2 / G4
 20:10
22:26
 52:45
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Cortés Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:26 (4:29 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 52:45
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Total: 52:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 1.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +39.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 18 Karla Patricia Ruiz Gaona
MEX
+65 s
+39 s
G3 / G2
 19:43
20:44
 52:56
Show details
Prediction details: Karla Patricia Ruiz Gaona

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–25
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 26.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (4:09 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Total: 52:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 26.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 6 Natalia Casas
MEX
+70 s
+39 s
G4 / G2
 18:02
18:11
 53:09
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Casas

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 30.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 53:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 53:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 31.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 14 Liberty Ricca
USA
+34 s
+1 s
G1 / G2
 21:08
19:45
 53:28
Show details
Prediction details: Liberty Ricca

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 33.4 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:08 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 53:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 21:08 (4:14 / km)
Total: 53:28
16 / 26 Camille Buchanan
USA
+58 s
+30 s
G3 / G4
 20:45
21:22
 53:58
Show details
Prediction details: Camille Buchanan

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–24
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 27.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:58
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Total: 53:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 19.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 20 Lizeth Lopez Ortega
MEX
+91 s
+58 s
G4 / G3
 19:27
19:53
 54:34
Show details
Prediction details: Lizeth Lopez Ortega

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–30
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 32.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 54:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Total: 54:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 52 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 34 Regina Michel Camacho
MEX
+87 s
+117 s
G4 / G6
 19:29
21:05
 54:36
Show details
Prediction details: Regina Michel Camacho

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +117 s
Fehler: -29.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 (4:13 / km)
Error: −1:36 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 54:36
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 54:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 48.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 23 Rebeca Sofia Rivero Franco
MEX
+68 s
+42 s
G3 / G3
correct 		21:24
20:33
 54:37
Show details
Prediction details: Rebeca Sofia Rivero Franco

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 24–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 26.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:24 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 54:37
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 21:24 (4:17 / km)
Total: 54:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 29.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 36 Cinthia López Ortega
MEX
+84 s
+64 s
G4 / G7
 19:42
23:14
 54:49
Show details
Prediction details: Cinthia López Ortega

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 20.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:14 (4:39 / km)
Error: −3:32 / −0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 54:49
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Total: 54:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 45.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 27 Maria García Rábago
MEX
+73 s
+46 s
G4 / G5
 19:46
20:53
 54:53
Show details
Prediction details: Maria García Rábago

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 27.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 54:53
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Total: 54:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 22 Ixchel Camacho Álcantara
MEX
+75 s
+40 s
G4 / G3
 20:09
20:23
 55:16
Show details
Prediction details: Ixchel Camacho Álcantara

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 34.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 55:16
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Total: 55:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 36.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 1 María López Faraudo
MEX
+115 s
+43 s
G5 / G2
 18:04
17:21
 55:32
Show details
Prediction details: María López Faraudo

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 72.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 25.1 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 55:32
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:33 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 55:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 76.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 16 Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales
HON
+72 s
+42 s
G4 / G2
 20:30
19:59
 55:37
Show details
Prediction details: Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 17–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 55:37
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km)
Total: 55:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 33.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 21 Victoria Medina Quintero
MEX
+85 s
+63 s
G4 / G3
 20:32
20:22
 55:39
Show details
Prediction details: Victoria Medina Quintero

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 22–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 55:39
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Total: 55:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 46.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 19 Julia Maria Alcala Rosales
HON
+74 s
+42 s
G4 / G2
 20:37
21:00
 55:44
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Maria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 19–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 32.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:00 (4:12 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 55:44
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Total: 55:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 35.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 15 Chelsea Webber
USA
+68 s
+12 s
G3 / G2
 23:23
19:42
 56:36
Show details
Prediction details: Chelsea Webber

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 26–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 56.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:23 (4:41 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Error: +3:41 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 56:36
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 23:23 (4:41 / km)
Total: 56:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 29.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 17 Maria Fernanda Salazar Hernandez
MEX
+106 s
+60 s
G5 / G3
 19:54
18:46
 57:22
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Fernanda Salazar Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 28–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 46.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 57:22
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:33 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Total: 57:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 67.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 28 Selene Martinez Avila
MEX
+140 s
+85 s
G6 / G6
correct 		19:07
18:43
 58:00
Show details
Prediction details: Selene Martinez Avila

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 29–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +140 s
Time: 11:07
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 55.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.1 s
Gap behind: 19.6 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 58:00
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:07 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:28 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 58:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 101.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 25 Paola Judith Zarate Leon
MEX
+73 s
+44 s
G4 / G4
correct 		23:20
21:05
 58:27
Show details
Prediction details: Paola Judith Zarate Leon

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 29–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 28.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:20 (4:40 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.38 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 (4:13 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 58:27
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 23:20 (4:40 / km)
Total: 58:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 34.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 38 Daira Tais Mercado Fong
MEX
+100 s
+84 s
G5 / G9
 21:17
23:58
 58:45
Show details
Prediction details: Daira Tais Mercado Fong

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 31–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:58 (4:48 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 58:45
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:33 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km)
Total: 58:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 61.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 31 Sarah Plant
USA
+100 s
+47 s
G5 / G5
correct 		21:19
21:51
 58:47
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Plant

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 31–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 53.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:19 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:51 (4:22 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 58:47
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:33 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 21:19 (4:16 / km)
Total: 58:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 61.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 24 Valerie Tatiana Hernandez
COL
+160 s
+41 s
G6 / G4
 20:15
20:52
 59:08
Show details
Prediction details: Valerie Tatiana Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 33–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +160 s
Time: 11:27
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 119.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.6 s
Gap behind: 44.3 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 59:08
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:27 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:28 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Total: 59:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 121.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 33 Emilia Martinez Mendivil
MEX
+204 s
+159 s
G6 / G8
 20:40
19:30
 59:33
Show details
Prediction details: Emilia Martinez Mendivil

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 35–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +204 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +159 s
Fehler: 45.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 44.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 59:33
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:28 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Total: 59:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 165.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Danielle Orie
USA
+43 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct
17:37
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 43.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 32 Leah Amezcua Herrera
MEX
+55 s
+58 s
G3 / G5
22:39
Show details
Prediction details: Leah Amezcua Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -3.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:39 (4:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 35 Fanny Carolina Tenorio Murillo
MEX
+0 s
+60 s
G0 / G6
21:49
Show details
Prediction details: Fanny Carolina Tenorio Murillo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 37–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 37 Luciana Ruiz Serrano
MEX
+0 s
+65 s
G0 / G8
26:04
Show details
Prediction details: Luciana Ruiz Serrano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 38–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:04 (5:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.