Prediction comparison

45-49 Female AG

21.06.2024 Coimbra POR

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 4/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 8.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 58.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.3

Mean swim error55.9 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history4

					Details
0 / 1	Samantha Lake GBR	+9 s +0 s	Bike DNF	19:55 19:29	Show details Prediction details: Samantha Lake Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 14:51 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 9.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:59 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:51 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Louise Brass GBR	+0 s +64 s	Bike DNF	21:25	Show details Prediction details: Louise Brass Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:42 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:25 (4:17 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:42 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Tracy Marsh GBR	+0 s +17 s	Bike DNF	22:45	Show details Prediction details: Tracy Marsh Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:42 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:45 (4:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:42 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Michelle Reid GBR	+35 s +25 s	Bike DNF	23:15 23:05	Show details Prediction details: Michelle Reid Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 15:17 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 10.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 23:15 (4:39 / km) Historical basis: 4:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:05 (4:37 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:17 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:15 (4:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Kathy Wellam GBR	+182 s +205 s	Bike DNF	21:50 20:53	Show details Prediction details: Kathy Wellam Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +182 s Time: 17:44 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +205 s Fehler: -22.9 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.74 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:22 / km Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:53 (4:11 / km) Error: +0:57 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:44 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Victoria Doran GBR	+321 s +266 s	Bike DNF	22:44 22:19	Show details Prediction details: Victoria Doran Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +321 s Time: 20:03 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +266 s Fehler: 54.5 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:44 (4:33 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 (4:28 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:03 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:44 (4:33 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Raechel Hogg GBR	+0 s +261 s	Bike DNF	23:02	Show details Prediction details: Raechel Hogg Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:42 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +261 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:02 (4:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:42 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Helen Hyder GBR	+0 s +195 s	Bike DNF	23:44	Show details Prediction details: Helen Hyder Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:42 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +195 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:44 (4:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:42 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Helen Godfrey GBR	+164 s +98 s	Bike DNF	27:01 25:51	Show details Prediction details: Helen Godfrey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +164 s Time: 17:26 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +98 s Fehler: 66.2 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 27:01 (5:24 / km) Historical basis: 5:24 / km Best comparable pace: 5:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:51 (5:10 / km) Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:26 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 27:01 (5:24 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Isabel Maria Fernandez Lopez ESP	+261 s +280 s	Bike DNF	24:55 24:26	Show details Prediction details: Isabel Maria Fernandez Lopez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +261 s Time: 19:03 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +280 s Fehler: -18.9 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:55 (4:59 / km) Historical basis: 4:58 / km Best comparable pace: 4:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:26 (4:53 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:03 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:55 (4:59 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Susana Neta POR	+609 s +359 s	Bike DNF	23:46	Show details Prediction details: Susana Neta Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +609 s Time: 24:51 Pace: 2:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +359 s Fehler: 250.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:46 (4:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 24:51 (2:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Suzette McQuie GBR	+442 s +427 s	Bike DNF	24:07 23:25	Show details Prediction details: Suzette McQuie Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +442 s Time: 22:04 Pace: 2:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +427 s Fehler: 15.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:07 (4:49 / km) Historical basis: 4:49 / km Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:25 (4:41 / km) Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 22:04 (2:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:07 (4:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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