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75-79 Male AG Sprint

21.09.2024 Vichy FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Championships Vichy

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 31/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 21.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.9
Mean swim error118.7 s
Mean bike-speed error3.43 km/h
Correct bike groups2/13
No history1
Within the 80% range7.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Hjalmar Schiøtz
NOR
+79 s
+85 s
G1 / G2
 27:02
26:57
 1:10:35
Show details
Prediction details: Hjalmar Schiøtz

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 16:19
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: -6.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.5 s
Gap behind: 18.5 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:02 (5:31 / km)
Historical basis: 5:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:57 (5:30 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:19 (2:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:59 (29.2 km/h)
Run: 27:02 (5:31 / km)
Total: 1:10:35
2 / 3 Claude Dehaemers
FRA
+63 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		27:27
26:16
 1:11:00
Show details
Prediction details: Claude Dehaemers

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 16:03
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 63.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 15.5 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:27 (5:36 / km)
Historical basis: 5:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:16 (5:22 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:00
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 16:03 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:59 (29.2 km/h)
Run: 27:27 (5:36 / km)
Total: 1:11:00
3 / 1 Michael Goddard
GBR
+228 s
+101 s
G2 / G2
correct 		23:27
23:15
 1:11:19
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Goddard

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +228 s
Time: 18:48
Pace: 2:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: 127.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:27 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:15 (4:45 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:48 (2:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 43:57 (27.2 km/h)
Run: 23:27 (4:47 / km)
Total: 1:11:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:58
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
About 50 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +178 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 10 Douglas Wood
GBR
+235 s
+103 s
G2 / G6
 29:02
30:52
 1:16:54
Show details
Prediction details: Douglas Wood

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +235 s
Time: 18:55
Pace: 2:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: 131.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 109.1 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:02 (5:56 / km)
Historical basis: 5:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:52 (6:18 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:55 (2:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 43:57 (27.2 km/h)
Run: 29:02 (5:56 / km)
Total: 1:16:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:07
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
About 167.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +66.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 13 Giovanni Pardini
ITA
+344 s
+517 s
G3 / G10
 36:08
39:35
 1:28:50
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanni Pardini

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +344 s
Time: 20:44
Pace: 2:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +517 s
Fehler: -173.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 109.1 s
Gap behind: 129.3 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:08 (7:22 / km)
Historical basis: 7:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:35 (8:05 / km)
Error: −3:27 / −0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:44 (2:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:49 (25.8 km/h)
Run: 36:08 (7:22 / km)
Total: 1:28:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:07
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
About 276.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +66.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Rudolf Puhe
GER
+232 s
+38 s
G2 / G1
26:01
Show details
Prediction details: Rudolf Puhe

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +232 s
Time: 18:52
Pace: 2:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 194.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:01 (5:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:52 (2:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 43:57 (27.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:58
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
About 54 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +178 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Jean-Pierre Larrue
FRA
+0 s
+163 s
G0 / G1
28:42
Show details
Prediction details: Jean-Pierre Larrue

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:00
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +163 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:42 (5:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:00 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Christian Jacquesson
FRA
+97 s
+11 s
G1 / G3
29:35
Show details
Prediction details: Christian Jacquesson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +97 s
Time: 16:37
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 86.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.5 s
Gap behind: 38.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:35 (6:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:37 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:59 (29.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Grayhame Fish
GBR
+182 s
+13 s
G2 / G4
32:05
Show details
Prediction details: Grayhame Fish

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +182 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 169.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.1 s
Gap behind: 38.9 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:05 (6:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (2:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 43:57 (27.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:07
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
About 115.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +66.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 John Archer
GBR
+473 s
+264 s
G3 / G8
28:21
Show details
Prediction details: John Archer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +473 s
Time: 22:53
Pace: 3:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +264 s
Fehler: 209.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 129.3 s
Gap behind: 151.0 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:21 (5:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:53 (3:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:49 (25.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:58
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
About 295 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +178 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Michael Mallon
IRL
+221 s
+99 s
G2 / G7
29:26
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Mallon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +221 s
Time: 18:41
Pace: 2:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +99 s
Fehler: 122.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 38.9 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:26 (6:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:41 (2:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 43:57 (27.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:07
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
About 154.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +66.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Ivor Cooke
GBR
+135 s
+9 s
G1 / G8
34:11
Show details
Prediction details: Ivor Cooke

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +135 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 2:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 126.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 38.0 s
Gap behind: 19.0 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:11 (6:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 17:15 (2:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:59 (29.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 12 Jem Lawson
GBR
+154 s
+123 s
G1 / G9
35:03
Show details
Prediction details: Jem Lawson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +154 s
Time: 17:34
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +123 s
Fehler: 31.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.0 s
Gap behind: 28.1 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:03 (7:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:34 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:59 (29.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 14 Roger Joffre
FRA
+624 s
+519 s
G4 / G11
42:16
Show details
Prediction details: Roger Joffre

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +624 s
Time: 25:24
Pace: 3:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +519 s
Fehler: 105.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 151.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 27.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:16 (8:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 25:24 (3:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:14 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:07
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
About 557.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +66.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.