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PTS2 Men

22.09.2024 Vichy FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Championships Vichy

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.8
Mean swim error34.4 s
Mean bike-speed error1.63 km/h
Correct bike groups1/6
No history0
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Jules Ribstein
FRA
+15 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:53
20:37
 53:06
Show details
Prediction details: Jules Ribstein

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 11:17
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 53:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:17 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:24 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Total: 53:06
2 / 3 Wim De Paepe
BEL
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 22:04
22:02
 55:17
Show details
Prediction details: Wim De Paepe

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 33.5 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:04 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:02 (4:24 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 55:17
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:18 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:24 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 22:04 (4:25 / km)
Total: 55:17
3 / 4 Lionel Morales
ESP
+56 s
+26 s
G2 / G3
 20:59
20:43
 55:32
Show details
Prediction details: Lionel Morales

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 11:58
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 29.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 113.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 55:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:58 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:44 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km)
Total: 55:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 36.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6 Geoffrey Wersy
FRA
+324 s
+200 s
G3 / G5
 21:18
20:51
 1:01:09
Show details
Prediction details: Geoffrey Wersy

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +324 s
Time: 16:26
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +200 s
Fehler: 124.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 155.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:26 (2:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:27 (35.0 km/h)
Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Total: 1:01:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:21
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 304.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Vasilii Egorov
RUS
+169 s
+145 s
G2 / G4
19:24
Show details
Prediction details: Vasilii Egorov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +169 s
Time: 13:51
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +145 s
Fehler: 24.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 113.1 s
Gap behind: 155.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:51 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:44 (36.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:54
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 117.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Stephane Bahier
FRA
+49 s
+36 s
G1 / G2
23:53
Show details
Prediction details: Stephane Bahier

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 11:51
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 13.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.5 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:53 (4:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:51 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:24 (36.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable