Prediction comparison

75-79 Male AG Sprint

15.06.2024 Coimbra POR

Race information and calculation basis

2024 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 7/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 14.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.0

Mean bike-speed error29.04 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	David Juggins GBR	+0 s	G0 / G1		Show details Prediction details: David Juggins Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.01 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:55 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Hjalmar Schiøtz NOR	+98 s	G0 / G1	27:35	Show details Prediction details: Hjalmar Schiøtz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +98 s Time: Pace: 2:04 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.01 km/h Running and total Run: 27:35 (5:31 / km) Historical basis: 5:31 / km Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 22:59 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 27:35 (5:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Mick Anglim GBR	+0 s	G0 / G2	48:07	Show details Prediction details: Mick Anglim Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -30.56 km/h Running and total Run: 48:07 (9:37 / km) Historical basis: 9:37 / km Best comparable pace: 9:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:59 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 48:07 (9:37 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	John Burnham GBR	+309 s	G0 / G3		Show details Prediction details: John Burnham Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +309 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 28.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -28.15 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 28:12 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Steve Wash GBR	+0 s	G0 / G4		Show details Prediction details: Steve Wash Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 27.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -27.62 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:11 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	David George GBR	+0 s	G0 / G4		Show details Prediction details: David George Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 27.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -27.25 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 28:20 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Andrzej Warhaftig GBR	+0 s	G0 / G5		Show details Prediction details: Andrzej Warhaftig Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 25.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -25.71 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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