Prediction comparison

Elite Men

13.07.2024 Klazienaveen NED

Race information and calculation basis

2024 NED Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.07.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 46/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 52.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.3

Mean swim error42.9 s

Mean bike-speed error3.42 km/h

Correct bike groups5/22

No history3

Within the 80% range40.0 %

						Details
1 / 1	Menno Koolhaas NED	+20 s +3 s	G1 / G1 correct	32:14 29:31	1:30:48	Show details Prediction details: Menno Koolhaas Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 17:47 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 16.5 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 41.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.98 km/h Running and total Run: 32:14 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:31 (2:57 / km) Error: +2:43 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:30:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:47 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.2 km/h) Run: 32:14 (3:13 / km) Total: 1:30:48
2 / 11	Olaf Jan Bosscher NED	+34 s +54 s	G2 / G2 correct	33:01 33:40	1:31:54	Show details Prediction details: Olaf Jan Bosscher Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–7 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 11 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 18:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -20.1 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.7 s Gap behind: 11.4 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h Running and total Run: 33:01 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 51 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:40 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:39 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:31:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:39 (41.6 km/h) Run: 33:01 (3:18 / km) Total: 1:31:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 7.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5	Victor Goené NED	+22 s +64 s	G1 / G2	33:22 31:42	1:31:56	Show details Prediction details: Victor Goené Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 1–15 Top-10 probability: 73 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 17:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: -41.8 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 52 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 41.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 11.7 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.86 km/h Running and total Run: 33:22 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 55 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:42 (3:10 / km) Error: +1:40 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:31:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.2 km/h) Run: 33:22 (3:20 / km) Total: 1:31:56
4 / 3	Jesse Cuijpers NED	+18 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	33:52 31:27	1:32:26	Show details Prediction details: Jesse Cuijpers Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 17:45 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 18.0 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 41.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.0 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.01 km/h Running and total Run: 33:52 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:27 (3:09 / km) Error: +2:25 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.2 km/h) Run: 33:52 (3:23 / km) Total: 1:32:26
5 / 8	Jeroen Velders NED	+64 s +68 s	G2 / G4	33:50 31:33	1:32:43	Show details Prediction details: Jeroen Velders Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 18:31 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: -4.3 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.2 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h Running and total Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:33 (3:09 / km) Error: +2:17 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:43 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 18:31 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:39 (41.6 km/h) Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km) Total: 1:32:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 33.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2	Jorik Van Egdom NED	+97 s +133 s	G3 / G2	33:05 30:25	1:32:51	Show details Prediction details: Jorik Van Egdom Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 2–7 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 2 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +97 s Time: 19:04 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +133 s Fehler: -35.6 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 12.9 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h Running and total Run: 33:05 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 30:25 (3:03 / km) Error: +2:40 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:04 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:09 (41.3 km/h) Run: 33:05 (3:19 / km) Total: 1:32:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:56 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 67.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Valentin Van Wersch NED	+68 s +143 s	G2 / G4	34:07 31:21	1:33:00	Show details Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 3–10 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 18:35 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +143 s Fehler: -75.3 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 6.3 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.97 km/h Running and total Run: 34:07 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:21 (3:08 / km) Error: +2:46 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:35 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:39 (41.6 km/h) Run: 34:07 (3:25 / km) Total: 1:33:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 37.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 17	Siwar Kool NED	+91 s +175 s	G3 / G7	33:16 31:11	1:33:02	Show details Prediction details: Siwar Kool Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 17 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +91 s Time: 18:58 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +175 s Fehler: -84.2 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.8 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 7 (3 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.41 km/h Running and total Run: 33:16 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:11 (3:07 / km) Error: +2:05 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:02 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:58 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:09 (41.3 km/h) Run: 33:16 (3:20 / km) Total: 1:33:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 64.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12	Thomas Smans NED	+120 s +190 s	G4 / G5	33:29 31:22	1:33:50	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Smans Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 6–9 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 12 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +120 s Time: 19:27 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +190 s Fehler: -70.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.3 s Gap behind: 39.0 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.00 km/h Running and total Run: 33:29 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:22 (3:08 / km) Error: +2:07 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:50 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:21 (41.0 km/h) Run: 33:29 (3:21 / km) Total: 1:33:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 89.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 6	Stijn Jansen NED	+74 s +65 s	G2 / G4	35:22 31:01	1:34:15	Show details Prediction details: Stijn Jansen Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 8–14 Top-10 probability: 44 % Result: 6 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 18:41 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: 9.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.3 s Gap behind: 16.8 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.80 km/h Running and total Run: 35:22 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:01 (3:06 / km) Error: +4:21 / +0:26 / km Overall prediction: 1:34:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:41 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:39 (41.6 km/h) Run: 35:22 (3:32 / km) Total: 1:34:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 44.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10	Simon Den Braber NED	+94 s +146 s	G3 / G3 correct	35:11 32:36	1:34:57	Show details Prediction details: Simon Den Braber Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 10–16 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 10 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 19:01 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +146 s Fehler: -51.6 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.26 km/h Running and total Run: 35:11 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:36 (3:16 / km) Error: +2:35 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:34:57 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:01 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:09 (41.3 km/h) Run: 35:11 (3:31 / km) Total: 1:34:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 68.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15	Giel Meesen NED	+159 s +182 s	G6 / G5	34:24 32:12	1:34:59	Show details Prediction details: Giel Meesen Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 15 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +159 s Time: 20:06 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +182 s Fehler: -23.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 39.0 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h Running and total Run: 34:24 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:12 (3:13 / km) Error: +2:12 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:34:59 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:06 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:56 (41.4 km/h) Run: 34:24 (3:26 / km) Total: 1:34:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 128.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 23	Izak Hanse NED	+165 s +274 s	G5 / G8	34:28 32:19	1:35:01	Show details Prediction details: Izak Hanse Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 23 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +165 s Time: 20:12 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +274 s Fehler: -108.9 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.2 s Gap behind: 7.6 s Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.05 km/h Running and total Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:19 (3:14 / km) Error: +2:09 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:01 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:12 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:40 (41.5 km/h) Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km) Total: 1:35:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 135.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 4	Thomas Cremers NED	+173 s +143 s	G5 / G2	34:33 31:21	1:35:06	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Cremers Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 23 % Result: 4 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +173 s Time: 20:20 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +143 s Fehler: 29.7 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.6 s Gap behind: 58.7 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.34 km/h Running and total Run: 34:33 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:21 (3:08 / km) Error: +3:12 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:20 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:40 (41.5 km/h) Run: 34:33 (3:27 / km) Total: 1:35:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 142.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 25	Joran Stobbe NED	+48 s +70 s	G2 / G6	36:38 34:44	1:35:31	Show details Prediction details: Joran Stobbe Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 11–17 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 25 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 18:15 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: -22.0 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 44 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 10.5 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.98 km/h Running and total Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 41 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:44 (3:28 / km) Error: +1:54 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:15 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:39 (41.6 km/h) Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km) Total: 1:35:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 21.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 24	Daan Jacobs NED	+160 s +254 s	G6 / G8	35:10 32:29	1:35:45	Show details Prediction details: Daan Jacobs Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 13–17 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 24 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +160 s Time: 20:07 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +254 s Fehler: -94.1 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 5.2 s Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.28 km/h Running and total Run: 35:10 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:29 (3:15 / km) Error: +2:41 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:45 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:07 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:56 (41.4 km/h) Run: 35:10 (3:31 / km) Total: 1:35:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 133.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 18	Sem Lazaroms NED	+59 s +66 s	G2 / G4	37:45 34:54	1:36:38	Show details Prediction details: Sem Lazaroms Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 15–19 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 18 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 18:26 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -7.5 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.5 s Gap behind: 5.2 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.80 km/h Running and total Run: 37:45 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:54 (3:29 / km) Error: +2:51 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:26 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:39 (41.6 km/h) Run: 37:45 (3:46 / km) Total: 1:36:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:54 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 32.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 13	Hugo Jan Bosscher NED	+7 s +60 s	G1 / G4	39:48 33:35	1:38:22	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Jan Bosscher Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 14–21 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 13 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 17:34 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: -53.0 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 63 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 41.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 11.0 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h Running and total Run: 39:48 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 12 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -1.44 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:35 (3:22 / km) Error: +6:13 / +0:37 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:34 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:12 (41.2 km/h) Run: 39:48 (3:59 / km) Total: 1:38:22
19 / 14	Lucas Goené NED	+45 s +65 s	G2 / G4	39:32 33:50	1:38:25	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Goené Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 14 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 18:12 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: -19.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.4 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.75 km/h Running and total Run: 39:32 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 11 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:50 (3:23 / km) Error: +5:42 / +0:34 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:12 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:39 (41.6 km/h) Run: 39:32 (3:57 / km) Total: 1:38:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 19.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20	Ivor Feunekes NED	+110 s +82 s	G4 / G7	38:32 32:22	1:38:53	Show details Prediction details: Ivor Feunekes Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 18–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +110 s Time: 19:17 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +82 s Fehler: 28.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 41.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.9 s Gap behind: 9.3 s Result: Group 7 (3 people) Speed: 36.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.93 km/h Running and total Run: 38:32 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.59 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:22 (3:14 / km) Error: +6:10 / +0:37 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:53 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 19:17 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:21 (41.0 km/h) Run: 38:32 (3:51 / km) Total: 1:38:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 84.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 22	Wouter Dijkshoorn NED	+93 s +177 s	G3 / G5	41:09 34:24	1:40:55	Show details Prediction details: Wouter Dijkshoorn Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 20–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 19:00 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +177 s Fehler: -83.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.48 km/h Running and total Run: 41:09 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:24 (3:26 / km) Error: +6:45 / +0:41 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:55 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:09 (41.3 km/h) Run: 41:09 (4:07 / km) Total: 1:40:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 67.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 16	Rick Paffen NED	+231 s +184 s	G7 / G7 correct	37:38 31:09	1:42:17	Show details Prediction details: Rick Paffen Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 21–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +231 s Time: 21:18 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +184 s Fehler: 47.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 58.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (3 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.49 km/h Running and total Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:09 (3:07 / km) Error: +6:29 / +0:39 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:17 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 21:18 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:48 (39.5 km/h) Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km) Total: 1:42:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:53 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 205.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Nicklas Hogervorst GER	+0 s +59 s	G0 / G4	31:48		Show details Prediction details: Nicklas Hogervorst Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 17:27 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:48 (3:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 17:27 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19	Olaf Van Den Bergh NED	+0 s +280 s	G0 / G8	31:05		Show details Prediction details: Olaf Van Den Bergh Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 17:27 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +280 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:05 (3:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 17:27 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21	Timo Van der Weijden NED	+0 s +187 s	G0 / G5	34:00		Show details Prediction details: Timo Van der Weijden Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 17:27 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +187 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 34:00 (3:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 17:27 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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