Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

70-74 Male AG

19.10.2024 Torremolinos ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Age-Group Championships Torremolinos-Andalucia

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 29/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 18.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 74.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.6
Mean swim error127.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.90 km/h
Correct bike groups3/25
No history2
Within the 80% range22.2 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Lothar Stall
GER
+0 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 48:48
50:37
 1:59:02
Show details
Prediction details: Lothar Stall

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -17.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.55 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 40.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:48 (4:53 / km)
Historical basis: 4:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:37 (5:04 / km)
Error: −1:49 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:59:02
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:12 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:14 (34.2 km/h)
Run: 48:48 (4:53 / km)
Total: 1:59:02
2 / 3 James Huguenard
USA
+141 s
+160 s
G3 / G3
correct 		51:37
48:39
 2:10:03
Show details
Prediction details: James Huguenard

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +141 s
Time: 26:33
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +160 s
Fehler: -19.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.27 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 99.9 s
Gap behind: 50.2 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:37 (5:10 / km)
Historical basis: 5:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:39 (4:52 / km)
Error: +2:58 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 2:10:03
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:33 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:16:06 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 51:37 (5:10 / km)
Total: 2:10:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 136.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Francisco Javier Andreu Posse
ESP
+191 s
+329 s
G4 / G4
correct 		50:40
48:42
 2:14:49
Show details
Prediction details: Francisco Javier Andreu Posse

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +191 s
Time: 27:23
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +329 s
Fehler: -138.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 50.2 s
Gap behind: 135.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 50:40 (5:04 / km)
Historical basis: 5:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:42 (4:52 / km)
Error: +1:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 2:14:49
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 27:23 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:20:58 (29.6 km/h)
Run: 50:40 (5:04 / km)
Total: 2:14:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 187.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 9 Tom Kinneman
USA
+496 s
+462 s
G6 / G7
 47:15
48:36
 2:18:06
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Kinneman

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +496 s
Time: 32:28
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +462 s
Fehler: 33.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.74 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.5 s
Gap behind: 17.2 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:15 (4:43 / km)
Historical basis: 4:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:36 (4:52 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 2:18:06
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 32:28 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 47:15 (4:43 / km)
Total: 2:18:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 491.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Jeremy Winter
GBR
+513 s
+736 s
G6 / G12
 50:29
49:54
 2:21:20
Show details
Prediction details: Jeremy Winter

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +513 s
Time: 32:45
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +736 s
Fehler: -223.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.2 s
Gap behind: 41.9 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 50:29 (5:03 / km)
Historical basis: 5:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:54 (4:59 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 2:21:20
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 32:45 (2:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 50:29 (5:03 / km)
Total: 2:21:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 509.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Serge Faure
FRA
+327 s
+439 s
G5 / G4
 53:28
50:09
 2:22:23
Show details
Prediction details: Serge Faure

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +327 s
Time: 29:39
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +439 s
Fehler: -112.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 2.02 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 35.7 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 53:28 (5:21 / km)
Historical basis: 5:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:09 (5:01 / km)
Error: +3:19 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 2:22:23
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 29:39 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:48 (29.0 km/h)
Run: 53:28 (5:21 / km)
Total: 2:22:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 323.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 16 Douglas Hill
USA
+366 s
+462 s
G5 / G8
 53:43
59:33
 2:22:38
Show details
Prediction details: Douglas Hill

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 10–13
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +366 s
Time: 30:18
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +462 s
Fehler: -95.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 85.5 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 53:43 (5:22 / km)
Historical basis: 5:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 59:33 (5:57 / km)
Error: −5:50 / −0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 2:22:38
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 30:18 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:48 (29.0 km/h)
Run: 53:43 (5:22 / km)
Total: 2:22:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 362.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 24 Scott Boylan
USA
+455 s
+517 s
G6 / G21
 52:35
52:15
 2:23:26
Show details
Prediction details: Scott Boylan

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +455 s
Time: 31:47
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +517 s
Fehler: -62.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.74 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 17.7 s
Result: Group 21 (1 people)
Speed: 25.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 52:35 (5:15 / km)
Historical basis: 5:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:15 (5:14 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 2:23:26
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 31:47 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 52:35 (5:15 / km)
Total: 2:23:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 450.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 18 Luis Guzmán Estrada
MEX
+579 s
+627 s
G7 / G18
 51:04
51:22
 2:24:15
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Guzmán Estrada

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +579 s
Time: 33:51
Pace: 2:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +627 s
Fehler: -48.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.6 s
Gap behind: 67.3 s
Result: Group 18 (2 people)
Speed: 25.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:04 (5:06 / km)
Historical basis: 5:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:22 (5:08 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 2:24:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 33:51 (2:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:40 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 51:04 (5:06 / km)
Total: 2:24:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 574.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 7 John Harley
GBR
+646 s
+727 s
G7 / G7
correct 		51:36
46:51
 2:24:47
Show details
Prediction details: John Harley

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +646 s
Time: 34:58
Pace: 2:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +727 s
Fehler: -81.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 67.3 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:36 (5:10 / km)
Historical basis: 5:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:51 (4:41 / km)
Error: +4:45 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 2:24:47
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 34:58 (2:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:40 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 51:36 (5:10 / km)
Total: 2:24:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 642.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 23 Grant Jeffreys
NZL
+452 s
+434 s
G6 / G20
 54:36
56:45
 2:25:27
Show details
Prediction details: Grant Jeffreys

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +452 s
Time: 31:44
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +434 s
Fehler: 17.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.74 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 85.5 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 20 (2 people)
Speed: 24.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:36 (5:28 / km)
Historical basis: 5:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 56:45 (5:41 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 2:25:27
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 31:44 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 54:36 (5:28 / km)
Total: 2:25:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 448 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 19 Ralph Ferguson
CAN
+564 s
+614 s
G6 / G14
 55:25
1:00:45
 2:26:16
Show details
Prediction details: Ralph Ferguson

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 17–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +564 s
Time: 33:36
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +614 s
Fehler: -49.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.75 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.2 s
Gap behind: 14.6 s
Result: Group 14 (2 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 55:25 (5:32 / km)
Historical basis: 5:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:00:45 (6:05 / km)
Error: −5:20 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 2:26:16
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 33:36 (2:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 55:25 (5:32 / km)
Total: 2:26:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 560.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 15 Carm Morra
CAN
+326 s
+436 s
G5 / G11
 57:26
55:11
 2:26:21
Show details
Prediction details: Carm Morra

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +326 s
Time: 29:38
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +436 s
Fehler: -109.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 135.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 57:26 (5:45 / km)
Historical basis: 5:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 55:11 (5:31 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 2:26:21
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 29:38 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:48 (29.0 km/h)
Run: 57:26 (5:45 / km)
Total: 2:26:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 322.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 13 Mike Wien
USA
+363 s
+535 s
G5 / G14
 57:27
51:21
 2:26:22
Show details
Prediction details: Mike Wien

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +363 s
Time: 30:15
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +535 s
Fehler: -172.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 35.7 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 14 (2 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 57:27 (5:45 / km)
Historical basis: 5:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -2.14 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:21 (5:08 / km)
Error: +6:06 / +0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 2:26:22
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 30:15 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:48 (29.0 km/h)
Run: 57:27 (5:45 / km)
Total: 2:26:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 358.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 21 Josep Colome Somoza
ESP
+478 s
+572 s
G6 / G17
 57:21
1:00:43
 2:28:12
Show details
Prediction details: Josep Colome Somoza

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 19–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +478 s
Time: 32:10
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +572 s
Fehler: -93.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.74 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 17.5 s
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 57:21 (5:44 / km)
Historical basis: 5:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:00:43 (6:04 / km)
Error: −3:22 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 2:28:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 32:10 (2:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 57:21 (5:44 / km)
Total: 2:28:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 474.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 26 Ferdinand Karnath
GER
+685 s
+1057 s
G7 / G20
 59:36
58:27
 2:32:47
Show details
Prediction details: Ferdinand Karnath

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +685 s
Time: 35:37
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1057 s
Fehler: -372.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.9 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 20 (2 people)
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 59:36 (5:58 / km)
Historical basis: 5:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 58:27 (5:51 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 2:32:47
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 35:37 (2:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:40 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 59:36 (5:58 / km)
Total: 2:32:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 681 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 27 Miguel Benjamin Corona Sanchez
MEX
+555 s
+865 s
G6 / G22
 1:14:04
1:02:38
 2:44:55
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Benjamin Corona Sanchez

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +555 s
Time: 33:27
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +865 s
Fehler: -310.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 41.9 s
Gap behind: 9.2 s
Result: Group 22 (1 people)
Speed: 26.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:14:04 (7:24 / km)
Historical basis: 7:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.71 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:02:38 (6:16 / km)
Error: +11:26 / +1:09 / km
Overall prediction: 2:44:55
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 33:27 (2:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 1:14:04 (7:24 / km)
Total: 2:44:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 551 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 25 Wolfgang Richmann
GER
+472 s
+545 s
G6 / G19
 1:18:26
59:55
 2:49:17
Show details
Prediction details: Wolfgang Richmann

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 23–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +472 s
Time: 32:04
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +545 s
Fehler: -72.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.7 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 19 (1 people)
Speed: 26.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:18:26 (7:51 / km)
Historical basis: 8:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 59:55 (6:00 / km)
Error: +18:31 / +1:51 / km
Overall prediction: 2:49:17
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 32:04 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:26 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 1:18:26 (7:51 / km)
Total: 2:49:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:14
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 469.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 22 Paweł Sobczak
POL
+1,010 s
+1198 s
G9 / G18
 1:01:00
58:55
 2:49:55
Show details
Prediction details: Paweł Sobczak

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 23–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,010 s
Time: 41:02
Pace: 2:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1198 s
Fehler: -188.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 22, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 18 (2 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:01:00 (6:06 / km)
Historical basis: 6:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 58:55 (5:54 / km)
Error: +2:05 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 2:49:55
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 41:02 (2:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:32:05 (26.1 km/h)
Run: 1:01:00 (6:06 / km)
Total: 2:49:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 1006.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20 Michael Covell
GBR
+746 s
+616 s
G8 / G16
 1:21:19
1:02:26
 3:00:24
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Covell

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +746 s
Time: 36:38
Pace: 2:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +616 s
Fehler: 129.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 20, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.6 s
Gap behind: 232.4 s
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:21:19 (8:08 / km)
Historical basis: 8:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.71 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:02:26 (6:15 / km)
Error: +18:53 / +1:53 / km
Overall prediction: 3:00:24
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 36:38 (2:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:47 (27.7 km/h)
Run: 1:21:19 (8:08 / km)
Total: 3:00:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 741.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Robert Smartt
USA
+41 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
47:51
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Smartt

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 24:53
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 40.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 40.9 s
Gap behind: 99.9 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:51 (4:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:53 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:16:57 (31.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 37 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Nick Hewitt
GBR
+0 s
+451 s
G0 / G5
47:53
Show details
Prediction details: Nick Hewitt

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +451 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:53 (4:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:12 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Peter Staple
USA
+0 s
+246 s
G0 / G6
51:39
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Staple

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +246 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:39 (5:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:12 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 John Lapello
CAN
+691 s
+685 s
G7 / G9
50:00
Show details
Prediction details: John Lapello

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +691 s
Time: 35:43
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +685 s
Fehler: 6.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 34.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:00 (5:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 35:43 (2:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:40 (29.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:49
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 654.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Andrew Sargent
GBR
+725 s
+510 s
G8 / G11
52:16
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Sargent

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +725 s
Time: 36:17
Pace: 2:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +510 s
Fehler: 215.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 19, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.0 s
Gap behind: 20.6 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:16 (5:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 36:17 (2:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:47 (27.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 721.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 William Snowdon
GBR
+651 s
+527 s
G7 / G13
54:48
Show details
Prediction details: William Snowdon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +651 s
Time: 35:03
Pace: 2:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +527 s
Fehler: 124.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 33.9 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:48 (5:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 35:03 (2:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:40 (29.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:49
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 614.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Hansjörg Hubner
GER
+978 s
+521 s
G8 / G10
59:29
Show details
Prediction details: Hansjörg Hubner

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +978 s
Time: 40:30
Pace: 2:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +521 s
Fehler: 457.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 21, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 232.4 s
Gap behind: 32.0 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 59:29 (5:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 40:30 (2:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:47 (27.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:49
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 941.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.