Prediction comparison

75-79 Male AG

23.08.2024 Townsville AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2024 World Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Townsville

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 6/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 12.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.9

Mean swim error325.4 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Stephen Parnell AUS	+10 s +0 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Stephen Parnell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 24:47 Pace: 2:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 10.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 12:19 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 24:47 (2:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	David Iverach AUS	+0 s +308 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: David Iverach Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 24:37 Pace: 2:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +308 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 12:18 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 24:37 (2:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Gary Gorman USA	+248 s +541 s	Bike DNF	14:48	Show details Prediction details: Gary Gorman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +248 s Time: 28:45 Pace: 2:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +541 s Fehler: -293.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 14:48 (5:55 / km) Historical basis: 5:55 / km Best comparable pace: 5:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:17 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 28:45 (2:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 14:48 (5:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Mick Anglim GBR	+764 s +845 s	Bike DNF	19:57	Show details Prediction details: Mick Anglim Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +764 s Time: 37:21 Pace: 3:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +845 s Fehler: -80.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:57 (7:59 / km) Historical basis: 7:59 / km Best comparable pace: 5:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 37:21 (3:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:57 (7:59 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Gary Turner AUS	+151 s +734 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Gary Turner Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +151 s Time: 27:08 Pace: 2:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +734 s Fehler: -583.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 27:08 (2:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Douglas Stewart USA	+550 s +824 s	Bike DNF	15:38	Show details Prediction details: Douglas Stewart Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +550 s Time: 33:47 Pace: 3:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +824 s Fehler: -274.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 15:38 (6:15 / km) Historical basis: 6:15 / km Best comparable pace: 6:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 33:47 (3:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:38 (6:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Peter Hackbert USA	+412 s +1073 s	Bike DNF	21:54	Show details Prediction details: Peter Hackbert Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +412 s Time: 31:29 Pace: 3:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1073 s Fehler: -660.6 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:54 (8:46 / km) Historical basis: 8:46 / km Best comparable pace: 8:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 31:29 (3:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:54 (8:46 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Dean Elliott CAN	+972 s +1348 s	Bike DNF	19:38	Show details Prediction details: Dean Elliott Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +972 s Time: 40:49 Pace: 4:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1348 s Fehler: -375.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:38 (7:51 / km) Historical basis: 7:51 / km Best comparable pace: 7:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:39 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 40:49 (4:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:38 (7:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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