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55-59 Male AG

20.08.2024 Townsville AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Townsville

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 22/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 4.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 12.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.3
Mean swim error190.6 s
Correct bike groups1/16
No history8
Within the 80% range16.7 %
Details
1 / 2 Grzegorz Zgliczynski
POL
+18 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 27:56
28:06
 1:04:14
Show details
Prediction details: Grzegorz Zgliczynski

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 14:21
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.47 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.0 s
Gap behind: 12.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:56 (4:39 / km)
Historical basis: 4:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:06 (4:41 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:21 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 27:56 (4:39 / km)
Total: 1:04:14
2 / 19 Scott Croner
USA
+153 s
+178 s
G2 / G21
 25:36
35:37
 1:07:05
Show details
Prediction details: Scott Croner

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +153 s
Time: 16:36
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +178 s
Fehler: -25.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 74.0 s
Result: Group 21 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:36 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:37 (5:56 / km)
Error: −10:01 / −1:40 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:05
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:36 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (35.0 km/h)
Run: 25:36 (4:16 / km)
Total: 1:07:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:07
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 149.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 10 Gareth Cashin
NZL
+135 s
+123 s
G1 / G7
 32:57
36:14
 1:09:15
Show details
Prediction details: Gareth Cashin

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 14–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +135 s
Time: 16:18
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +123 s
Fehler: 12.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 84.3 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:57 (5:30 / km)
Historical basis: 5:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:14 (6:02 / km)
Error: −3:17 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:15
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:18 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 32:57 (5:30 / km)
Total: 1:09:15
4 / 11 Andrew Martin
AUS
+379 s
+319 s
G2 / G14
 31:14
34:06
 1:12:43
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Martin

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 15–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +379 s
Time: 20:22
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +319 s
Fehler: 59.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 35.6 s
Gap behind: 148.4 s
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:14 (5:12 / km)
Historical basis: 5:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:06 (5:41 / km)
Error: −2:52 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:43
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 20:22 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (35.0 km/h)
Run: 31:14 (5:12 / km)
Total: 1:12:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 232.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +145.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9 Scott Wilson
AUS
+150 s
+168 s
G2 / G10
 31:54
32:11
 1:13:23
Show details
Prediction details: Scott Wilson

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time: 16:33
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +168 s
Fehler: -18.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.54 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.8 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:54 (5:19 / km)
Historical basis: 5:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:11 (5:22 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:23
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 16:33 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (35.0 km/h)
Run: 31:54 (5:19 / km)
Total: 1:13:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:32
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 0.90000000000001 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +148.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Jeremy Critchett
AUS
+51 s
+139 s
G1 / G1
correct
28:00
Show details
Prediction details: Jeremy Critchett

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 14:54
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +139 s
Fehler: -88.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 84.3 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:00 (4:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 14:54 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3 Martin Ralph
NZL
+343 s
+115 s
G2 / G3
29:55
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Ralph

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +343 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +115 s
Fehler: 228.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 116.0 s
Gap behind: 35.6 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:55 (4:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:46 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (35.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 197.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +145.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Murray Smith
AUS
+141 s
+170 s
G1 / G4
30:28
Show details
Prediction details: Murray Smith

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +141 s
Time: 16:24
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +170 s
Fehler: -29.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 8.8 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:28 (5:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:24 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Brian Millett
AUS
+0 s
+115 s
G0 / G5
33:06
Show details
Prediction details: Brian Millett

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +115 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:06 (5:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Ron Acutt
AUS
+30 s
+58 s
G1 / G4
34:22
Show details
Prediction details: Ron Acutt

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 14:33
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -28.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.0 s
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:22 (5:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:33 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Paul Cochrane
AUS
+0 s
+155 s
G0 / G8
33:02
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Cochrane

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +155 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:02 (5:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Brett Turia
NZL
+0 s
+173 s
G1 / G6
35:45
Show details
Prediction details: Brett Turia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +173 s
Fehler: -173.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:45 (5:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 12 Brandon Kerkstra
USA
+0 s
+314 s
G0 / G11
37:03
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Kerkstra

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +314 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:03 (6:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Eric Stephen Leach
AUS
+227 s
+185 s
G2 / G12
36:23
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Stephen Leach

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +227 s
Time: 17:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +185 s
Fehler: 42.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 74.0 s
Gap behind: 116.0 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:23 (6:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 17:50 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (35.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 81.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +145.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Paul Duhamel
CAN
+0 s
+149 s
G0 / G9
39:08
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Duhamel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +149 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:08 (6:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Bruce Hutchison
NZL
+0 s
+303 s
G0 / G13
36:35
Show details
Prediction details: Bruce Hutchison

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +303 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:35 (6:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 David Comiskey
AUS
+0 s
+428 s
G1 / G15
36:35
Show details
Prediction details: David Comiskey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +428 s
Fehler: -428.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:35 (6:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 17 Seppo Kael
AUS
+527 s
+497 s
G2 / G16
41:00
Show details
Prediction details: Seppo Kael

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +527 s
Time: 22:50
Pace: 2:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +497 s
Fehler: 30.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 148.4 s
Gap behind: 701.0 s
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:00 (6:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 22:50 (2:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (35.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 381.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +145.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18 Sam Cooke
AUS
+0 s
+593 s
G1 / G19
38:29
Show details
Prediction details: Sam Cooke

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +593 s
Fehler: -593.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 19 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:29 (6:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 20 Scott McHugh
AUS
+0 s
+388 s
G1 / G18
42:00
Show details
Prediction details: Scott McHugh

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +388 s
Fehler: -388.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 18.0 s
Result: Group 18 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:00 (7:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 21 Dave Sutton
USA
+0 s
+401 s
G0 / G17
41:43
Show details
Prediction details: Dave Sutton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +401 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:43 (6:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22 Paul Garwood
AUS
+0 s
+324 s
G0 / G20
42:21
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Garwood

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +324 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 20 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:21 (7:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Christo Jacobie
AUS
+1,228 s
+338 s
G3 / G23
43:34
Show details
Prediction details: Christo Jacobie

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,228 s
Time: 34:31
Pace: 3:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +338 s
Fehler: 890.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 701.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 23 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:34 (7:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 34:31 (3:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:24 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 1082.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +145.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 24 David Schwartz
USA
+0 s
+701 s
G0 / G22
50:19
Show details
Prediction details: David Schwartz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:03
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +701 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 22 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:19 (8:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:03 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.