Prediction comparison

PTWC Men

18.10.2024 Torremolinos ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2024 World Triathlon Para Championships Torremolinos-Andalucia

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 64/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 87.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.3

Mean swim error27.1 s

Mean bike-speed error2.91 km/h

Correct bike groups2/8

No history0

Within the 80% range37.5 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Jetze Plat H2 NED	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	11:32 11:04	43:19	Show details Prediction details: Jetze Plat H2 Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 40.7 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.67 km/h Running and total Run: 11:32 (2:18 / km) Historical basis: 2:21 / km Best comparable pace: 2:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.76 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:04 (2:13 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (36.1 km/h) Run: 11:32 (2:18 / km) Total: 43:19
2 / 2	Florian Brungraber H2 AUT	+41 s +63 s	G2 / G2 correct	11:13 10:44	43:26	Show details Prediction details: Florian Brungraber H2 Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 10:59 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +63 s Fehler: -22.3 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 44 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 36.3 km/h Gap ahead: 40.7 s Gap behind: 5.1 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.20 km/h Running and total Run: 11:13 (2:15 / km) Historical basis: 2:21 / km Best comparable pace: 2:15 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.43 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:44 (2:09 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:59 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:33 (36.3 km/h) Run: 11:13 (2:15 / km) Total: 43:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 26.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5	Louis Noel H2 FRA	+59 s +92 s	G3 / G4	12:31 12:15	48:21	Show details Prediction details: Louis Noel H2 Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 11:17 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: -32.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 32.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.6 s Gap behind: 12.9 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 34.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.93 km/h Running and total Run: 12:31 (2:30 / km) Historical basis: 2:27 / km Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.95 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:15 (2:27 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 48:21 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:17 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:51 (32.8 km/h) Run: 12:31 (2:30 / km) Total: 48:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 55.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7	Joshua Landmann H2 GBR	+46 s +95 s	G3 / G6	12:59 12:25	48:49	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Landmann H2 Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 11:04 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +95 s Fehler: -49.2 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.52 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 32.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.1 s Gap behind: 13.6 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.97 km/h Running and total Run: 12:59 (2:36 / km) Historical basis: 2:40 / km Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:25 (2:29 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 48:49 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:51 (32.8 km/h) Run: 12:59 (2:36 / km) Total: 48:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 41.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4	Giuseppe Romele H1 ITA	+72 s +91 s	G4 / G5	13:56 13:18	50:58	Show details Prediction details: Giuseppe Romele H1 Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 11:30 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +91 s Fehler: -18.7 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.9 s Gap behind: 53.7 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 33.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h Running and total Run: 13:56 (2:47 / km) Historical basis: 2:47 / km Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 13:18 (2:40 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 50:58 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:30 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:56 (32.0 km/h) Run: 13:56 (2:47 / km) Total: 50:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 68.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6	Howie Sanborn H1 USA	+210 s +253 s	G5 / G7	14:03 12:36	55:44	Show details Prediction details: Howie Sanborn H1 Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +210 s Time: 13:48 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +253 s Fehler: -43.5 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 42.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.36 km/h Running and total Run: 14:03 (2:49 / km) Historical basis: 2:52 / km Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.92 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:36 (2:31 / km) Error: +1:27 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 55:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:48 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:12 (29.5 km/h) Run: 14:03 (2:49 / km) Total: 55:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 205.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8	Jumpei Kimura H1 JPN	+167 s +193 s	G5 / G8	16:43 13:26	58:24	Show details Prediction details: Jumpei Kimura H1 Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +167 s Time: 13:05 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +193 s Fehler: -26.2 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 40.8 s Gap behind: 42.7 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 31.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h Running and total Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:26 (2:41 / km) Error: +3:17 / +0:39 / km Overall prediction: 58:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:05 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:12 (29.5 km/h) Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Total: 58:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 162.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Thomas Fruehwirth H1 AUT	+126 s +150 s	G4 / G3	12:02		Show details Prediction details: Thomas Fruehwirth H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +126 s Time: 12:24 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +150 s Fehler: -24.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 53.7 s Gap behind: 40.8 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.53 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 12:02 (2:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:24 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:56 (32.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:55 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 89.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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