Prediction comparison

65-69 Female AG Sprint

30.08.2025 Istanbul TUR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Asia and Europe Triathlon Age-Group Championships Istanbul

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.08.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 43/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 45.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 81.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Mean swim error86.6 s

Mean bike-speed error8.14 km/h

Correct bike groups4/11

No history0

Within the 80% range18.2 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Linda Russell-Bond GBR	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	23:20 24:06	1:02:07	Show details Prediction details: Linda Russell-Bond Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:26 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 30.9 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 105.5 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 22.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.34 km/h Running and total Run: 23:20 (4:32 / km) Historical basis: 4:32 / km Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:06 (4:41 / km) Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:26 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:47 (30.9 km/h) Run: 23:20 (4:32 / km) Total: 1:02:07
2 / 2	Jane Bell GBR	+106 s +112 s	G2 / G2 correct	26:59 26:15	1:06:16	Show details Prediction details: Jane Bell Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +106 s Time: 14:12 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: -6.5 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Gap ahead: 105.5 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 23.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 9.05 km/h Running and total Run: 26:59 (5:14 / km) Historical basis: 5:17 / km Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:15 (5:06 / km) Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:06:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:12 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:28 (32.0 km/h) Run: 26:59 (5:14 / km) Total: 1:06:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:12 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m About 0.40000000000001 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +105.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Beverley Childs GBR	+109 s +117 s	G2 / G2 correct	27:47 27:52	1:07:04	Show details Prediction details: Beverley Childs Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +109 s Time: 14:15 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +117 s Fehler: -7.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 29 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 14.9 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 23.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 9.03 km/h Running and total Run: 27:47 (5:24 / km) Historical basis: 5:24 / km Best comparable pace: 5:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:52 (5:25 / km) Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:07:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:15 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:28 (32.0 km/h) Run: 27:47 (5:24 / km) Total: 1:07:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 13:43 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m About 31.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +77.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 10	Tamlyn Harrison GBR	+124 s +152 s	G3 / G6	25:50 35:07	1:09:49	Show details Prediction details: Tamlyn Harrison Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +124 s Time: 14:30 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +152 s Fehler: -27.9 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.6 km/h Gap ahead: 14.9 s Gap behind: 79.7 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 20.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.07 km/h Running and total Run: 25:50 (5:01 / km) Historical basis: 5:01 / km Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:07 (6:49 / km) Error: −9:17 / −1:48 / km Overall prediction: 1:09:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:30 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:55 (28.6 km/h) Run: 25:50 (5:01 / km) Total: 1:09:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:30 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m About 120.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8	Gillian Barrett GBR	+336 s +384 s	G5 / G7	28:54 28:33	1:15:47	Show details Prediction details: Gillian Barrett Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +336 s Time: 18:02 Pace: 2:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +384 s Fehler: -48.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 35.6 s Gap behind: 62.8 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 20.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.51 km/h Running and total Run: 28:54 (5:37 / km) Historical basis: 5:28 / km Best comparable pace: 5:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:33 (5:33 / km) Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:15:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:02 (2:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:18 (29.1 km/h) Run: 28:54 (5:37 / km) Total: 1:15:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:30 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m About 331.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7	Helen Evans GBR	+300 s +203 s	G5 / G5 correct	29:09 30:24	1:16:02	Show details Prediction details: Helen Evans Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +300 s Time: 17:26 Pace: 2:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +203 s Fehler: 97.2 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 96.4 s Gap behind: 35.6 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 20.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.15 km/h Running and total Run: 29:09 (5:40 / km) Historical basis: 5:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 30:24 (5:54 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:16:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:26 (2:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:18 (29.1 km/h) Run: 29:09 (5:40 / km) Total: 1:16:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:30 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m About 296.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6	Elisabeth Bachem GER	+417 s +200 s	G6 / G4	28:18 29:51	1:17:42	Show details Prediction details: Elisabeth Bachem Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +417 s Time: 19:23 Pace: 2:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +200 s Fehler: 217.4 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.8 s Gap behind: 262.7 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 22.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.29 km/h Running and total Run: 28:18 (5:30 / km) Historical basis: 5:22 / km Best comparable pace: 5:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:51 (5:48 / km) Error: −1:33 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 1:17:42 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:23 (2:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:27 (28.3 km/h) Run: 28:18 (5:30 / km) Total: 1:17:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:30 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m About 413.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5	Eva Kiss-Kraft AUT	+204 s +199 s	G5 / G4	32:08 29:34	1:19:01	Show details Prediction details: Eva Kiss-Kraft Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +204 s Time: 15:50 Pace: 2:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +199 s Fehler: 4.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 79.7 s Gap behind: 96.4 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 21.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.32 km/h Running and total Run: 32:08 (6:14 / km) Historical basis: 6:14 / km Best comparable pace: 6:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 29:34 (5:44 / km) Error: +2:34 / +0:30 / km Overall prediction: 1:19:01 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 15:50 (2:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:18 (29.1 km/h) Run: 32:08 (6:14 / km) Total: 1:19:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:30 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m About 199.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9	Karen Cole GBR	+680 s +553 s	G7 / G8	27:26 27:16	1:22:37	Show details Prediction details: Karen Cole Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +680 s Time: 23:46 Pace: 3:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +553 s Fehler: 127.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 262.7 s Gap behind: 322.0 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 20.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.95 km/h Running and total Run: 27:26 (5:20 / km) Historical basis: 5:20 / km Best comparable pace: 5:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:16 (5:18 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:22:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:46 (3:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:28 (27.5 km/h) Run: 27:26 (5:20 / km) Total: 1:22:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:30 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m About 676.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3	Ann Cook GBR	+399 s +236 s	G4 / G3	45:36 25:43	1:32:23	Show details Prediction details: Ann Cook Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +399 s Time: 19:05 Pace: 2:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +236 s Fehler: 162.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 62.8 s Gap behind: 18.8 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 23.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.42 km/h Running and total Run: 45:36 (8:51 / km) Historical basis: 9:05 / km Best comparable pace: 4:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:43 (5:00 / km) Error: +19:53 / +3:52 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:05 (2:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 40:08 (29.9 km/h) Run: 45:36 (8:51 / km) Total: 1:32:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:30 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m About 394.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11	Kristina Hänel GER	+1,002 s +749 s	G7 / G9	40:17		Show details Prediction details: Kristina Hänel Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,002 s Time: 29:08 Pace: 3:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +749 s Fehler: 253.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 322.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 16.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 11.41 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:17 (7:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 29:08 (3:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:28 (27.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:07 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m About 900.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +101.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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