Prediction comparison

Elite Men

20.09.2025 Gamagori Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gamagori Ryokuchi Pier Park JPN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Asia Triathlon Cup Gamagori

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 66/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 97.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error10.5

Mean swim error12.9 s

Mean bike-speed error1.31 km/h

Correct bike groups21/65

No history1

Within the 80% range65.2 %

						Details
1 / 3	Henry McMecking NZL	+17 s +16 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:11 15:02	42:28	Show details Prediction details: Henry McMecking Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 96 % Result: 3 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 1.3 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h Running and total Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (3:00 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 42:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km) Total: 42:28
2 / 2	Saxon Morgan NZL	+7 s +11 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:22 14:58	42:39	Show details Prediction details: Saxon Morgan Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–10 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 8:55 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: -3.6 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h Running and total Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km) Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 42:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km) Total: 42:39
3 / 5	James Corbett TRI	+7 s +15 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:31 15:16	42:48	Show details Prediction details: James Corbett Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 8:55 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: -7.8 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h Running and total Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 42:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km) Total: 42:48
4 / 4	Robin Elg HKG	+11 s +8 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:52 15:06	43:09	Show details Prediction details: Robin Elg Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–16 Top-10 probability: 65 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 8:59 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 2.5 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h Running and total Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 173 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 43:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:09
5 / 9	Koki Yamamoto JPN	+15 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:55 16:24	43:12	Show details Prediction details: Koki Yamamoto Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–16 Top-10 probability: 53 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 8.7 s H2H: 56 Gegner:innen, 292 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h Running and total Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 56 Gegner:innen, 292 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Total: 43:12
6 / 10	Joshua Bird CAN	+4 s +6 s	G1 / G2	16:02 15:50	43:19	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Bird Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 2–28 Top-10 probability: 64 % Result: 10 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: 8:52 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: -2.1 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h Running and total Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:19 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km) Total: 43:19
7 / 19	Satoshi Iwamoto JPN	+18 s +17 s	G1 / G3	16:06 15:57	43:23	Show details Prediction details: Satoshi Iwamoto Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–21 Top-10 probability: 31 % Result: 19 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 0.5 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 227 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 3.4 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.32 km/h Running and total Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 227 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Total: 43:23
8 / 7	Kyotaro Yoshikawa JPN	+7 s +1 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:10 15:50	43:27	Show details Prediction details: Kyotaro Yoshikawa Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 7–15 Top-10 probability: 43 % Result: 7 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 8:55 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 5.5 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.90 km/h Running and total Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 43:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km) Total: 43:27
9 / 32	Monty Dixon AUS	+44 s +66 s	G3 / G6	14:55 15:48	43:34	Show details Prediction details: Monty Dixon Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 6–24 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 32 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -22.4 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 55 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h Running and total Run: 14:55 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 43:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 14:55 (2:59 / km) Total: 43:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 25.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 46	Amu Omuro JPN	+15 s +50 s	G1 / G4	16:22 17:37	43:39	Show details Prediction details: Amu Omuro Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 8–26 Top-10 probability: 28 % Result: 46 Deviation: -36 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -34.9 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h Running and total Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 43:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km) Total: 43:39
11 / 8	Ryousuke Maeda JPN	+17 s +9 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:23 15:56	43:40	Show details Prediction details: Ryousuke Maeda Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 6–33 Top-10 probability: 28 % Result: 8 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 7.7 s H2H: 55 Gegner:innen, 265 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h Running and total Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 264 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 43:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km) Total: 43:40
12 / 1	Takumi Hojo JPN	+31 s +0 s	G2 / G1	15:07 14:58	43:45	Show details Prediction details: Takumi Hojo Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 4–17 Top-10 probability: 63 % Result: 1 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 31.0 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 4.6 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km) Total: 43:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 56	Isaki Oku JPN	+16 s +19 s	G1 / G8	16:41 18:19	43:58	Show details Prediction details: Isaki Oku Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 18–31 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 56 Deviation: -43 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: -2.6 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.24 km/h Running and total Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km) Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 43:58 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Total: 43:58
14 / 16	Kazushi Jozuka JPN	+39 s +22 s	G3 / G2	15:33 16:16	44:12	Show details Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 9–30 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 16 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 17.1 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 212 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h Running and total Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 216 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km) Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 21.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 37	Akira Fukushima JPN	+14 s +14 s	G1 / G2	16:55 17:59	44:12	Show details Prediction details: Akira Fukushima Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 9–40 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 37 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -0.2 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h Running and total Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km) Error: −1:04 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 44:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Total: 44:12
16 / 15	Takuto Oshima JPN	+21 s +7 s	G2 / G4	15:41 15:00	44:19	Show details Prediction details: Takuto Oshima Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 4–19 Top-10 probability: 49 % Result: 15 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 13.9 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.59 km/h Running and total Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:00 / km) Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 44:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 48	Aleksandr Kurishov UZB	+8 s +13 s	G1 / G6	17:07 16:58	44:24	Show details Prediction details: Aleksandr Kurishov Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 16–32 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 48 Deviation: -31 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +8 s Time: 8:56 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.40 km/h Running and total Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 44:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Total: 44:24
18 / 13	Chris Gregor CAN	+10 s +22 s	G1 / G2	17:11 16:02	44:28	Show details Prediction details: Chris Gregor Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 3–44 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 13 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -12.1 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h Running and total Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km) Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 44:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Total: 44:28
19 / 17	Kenshin Mori JPN	+29 s +24 s	G2 / G3	15:54 15:48	44:32	Show details Prediction details: Kenshin Mori Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 9–25 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 17 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 5.1 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 220 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 219 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Total: 44:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 11.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 6	Oscar Coggins HKG	+30 s +14 s	G2 / G1	15:54 15:39	44:32	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Coggins Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 10–27 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 6 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 15.6 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.23 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 44:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Total: 44:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 11.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 25	Brett Saunders CAN	+9 s +13 s	G1 / G2	17:18 17:13	44:35	Show details Prediction details: Brett Saunders Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 21–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -4.3 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.52 km/h Running and total Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 11 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 80 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km) Total: 44:35
22 / 23	Ivan Abele NZL	+27 s +29 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:07 17:03	44:45	Show details Prediction details: Ivan Abele Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 10–37 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 23 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: -2.3 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 92 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h Running and total Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 77 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 44:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 8.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 41	Tristen Jones CAN	+40 s +47 s	G3 / G4	16:09 17:05	44:48	Show details Prediction details: Tristen Jones Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 10–50 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 41 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -7.3 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h Running and total Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 44:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 21.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 27	Hokuto Obara JPN	+37 s +20 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:10 16:47	44:49	Show details Prediction details: Hokuto Obara Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 15–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 16.9 s H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 228 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.89 km/h Running and total Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 228 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 19.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 34	Solen Wood CAN	+37 s +27 s	G3 / G6	16:13 15:58	44:52	Show details Prediction details: Solen Wood Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 17–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 10.1 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 40.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.52 km/h Running and total Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 44:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Total: 44:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 19.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 40	Rashif Amila Yaqin INA	+31 s +43 s	G2 / G4	16:14 16:56	44:52	Show details Prediction details: Rashif Amila Yaqin Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 11–34 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 40 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -12.5 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 168 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h Running and total Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 44:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km) Total: 44:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 12.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 14	Kazuna Asanuma JPN	+31 s +21 s	G2 / G3	16:15 15:31	44:53	Show details Prediction details: Kazuna Asanuma Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 13–39 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 14 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 9.5 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Total: 44:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 12.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 22	Shavit Haiat ISR	+47 s +34 s	G3 / G2	16:20 16:45	44:59	Show details Prediction details: Shavit Haiat Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 22–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 13.4 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h Running and total Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Total: 44:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 29.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 26	Kira Wakatake JPN	+43 s +30 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:21 16:37	45:00	Show details Prediction details: Kira Wakatake Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 24–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 13.4 s H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 241 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h Running and total Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 240 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:19 / km) Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Total: 45:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 25.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 11	Naoshige Oura JPN	+28 s +16 s	G2 / G1	16:24 16:32	45:02	Show details Prediction details: Naoshige Oura Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 7–42 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 11 Deviation: 19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 11.9 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 181 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.23 km/h Running and total Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 181 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Total: 45:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 10.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 28	Kanta Ando JPN	+37 s +42 s	G3 / G4	16:24 16:16	45:03	Show details Prediction details: Kanta Ando Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 18–40 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.23 km/h Running and total Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km) Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Total: 45:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 19.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 51	Konosuke Uchida JPN	+45 s +50 s	G3 / G9	16:32 16:41	45:11	Show details Prediction details: Konosuke Uchida Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 32–44 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 51 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -4.9 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.87 km/h Running and total Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:11 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Total: 45:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 27.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 43	Daiki Nishizaki JPN	+43 s +39 s	G3 / G6	16:33 16:29	45:12	Show details Prediction details: Daiki Nishizaki Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 24–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 43 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 3.6 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.31 km/h Running and total Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 45:12 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 24.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 20	Benjamin Airey NZL	+21 s +23 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:34 16:33	45:12	Show details Prediction details: Benjamin Airey Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 15–35 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 20 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: -1.7 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 50 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 39 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h Running and total Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 45 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 45:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 33	Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang HKG	+47 s +20 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:39 17:06	45:18	Show details Prediction details: Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 25–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 26.6 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 227 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.92 km/h Running and total Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 226 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:06 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 45:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km) Total: 45:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 28.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 21	Tsz To Wong HKG	+45 s +29 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:41 16:01	45:20	Show details Prediction details: Tsz To Wong Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 23–50 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 21 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 15.7 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h Running and total Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 45:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Total: 45:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 26.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 24	Tak Long Yip HKG	+53 s +45 s	G4 / G4 correct	15:54 16:02	45:27	Show details Prediction details: Tak Long Yip Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 29–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 7.9 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 238 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 237 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km) Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Total: 45:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 35.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 39	Juyoung Kim KOR	+22 s +16 s	G2 / G4	16:51 17:00	45:29	Show details Prediction details: Juyoung Kim Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 17–43 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 6.4 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h Running and total Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Total: 45:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 4.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 12	Grayson Westgate NZL	+29 s +31 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:53 16:01	45:31	Show details Prediction details: Grayson Westgate Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 22–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: 27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: -1.8 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 90 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h Running and total Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 45:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km) Total: 45:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 11.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 55	Joel Offord AUS	+13 s +41 s	G1 / G4	18:26 19:23	45:43	Show details Prediction details: Joel Offord Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 37–48 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 55 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -28.4 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 73 % Speed: 44.0 km/h Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h Running and total Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 45:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:59 (44.0 km/h) Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km) Total: 45:43
41 / 18	Shing Him Yu HKG	+29 s +25 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:10 16:28	45:48	Show details Prediction details: Shing Him Yu Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 17–54 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 18 Deviation: 23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 4.4 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 42.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h Running and total Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 45:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (42.2 km/h) Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km) Total: 45:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 11.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 66	Teppei Tokuyama JPN	+47 s +39 s	G3 / G4	17:20 23:18	45:59	Show details Prediction details: Teppei Tokuyama Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 21–60 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 66 Deviation: -24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 8.1 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 243 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h Running and total Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 243 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:18 (4:40 / km) Error: −5:58 / −1:12 / km Overall prediction: 45:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km) Total: 45:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 29.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 38	Akiya Deguchi JPN	+38 s +6 s	G3 / G2	17:28 17:57	46:07	Show details Prediction details: Akiya Deguchi Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 37–50 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 31.7 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 2 (11 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.35 km/h Running and total Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 46:07 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Total: 46:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 19.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 45	Li Rong, Luke Chua SGP	+42 s +49 s	G3 / G5	17:28 17:19	46:07	Show details Prediction details: Li Rong, Luke Chua Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 35–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 45 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -7.3 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h Running and total Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 46:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Total: 46:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 23.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 44	Kosei Kobayashi JPN	+48 s +42 s	G3 / G4	17:30 17:17	46:09	Show details Prediction details: Kosei Kobayashi Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 47–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 6.0 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h Running and total Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:09 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Total: 46:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 30.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 35	Christian Davey NZL	+67 s +55 s	G4 / G4 correct	16:39 16:41	46:12	Show details Prediction details: Christian Davey Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 32–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 12.2 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 88 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 4.9 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h Running and total Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 83 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 46:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km) Total: 46:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 49.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 57	Yi Jun Tey SGP	+66 s +58 s	G4 / G8	16:47 18:24	46:20	Show details Prediction details: Yi Jun Tey Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 39–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 57 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 9:54 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 7.7 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h Running and total Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Error: −1:37 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 46:20 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km) Total: 46:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 47.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 31	Aleksey Makarov UZB	+36 s +22 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:43 17:05	46:22	Show details Prediction details: Aleksey Makarov Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 39–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 13.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.6 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 3 (8 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h Running and total Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (3:25 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 46:22 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km) Total: 46:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 17.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 30	Rintaro Kuramoto JPN	+60 s +43 s	G4 / G4 correct	16:56 16:21	46:29	Show details Prediction details: Rintaro Kuramoto Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 45–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: 19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 17.0 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 5.7 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.27 km/h Running and total Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 46:29 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Total: 46:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 42.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 50	Shoya Yamanaka JPN	+58 s +59 s	G4 / G6	17:04 17:34	46:37	Show details Prediction details: Shoya Yamanaka Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 39–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 50 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 9:46 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: -1.5 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km) Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 46:37 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km) Total: 46:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 39.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 60	Sho Tachibana JPN	+52 s +57 s	G4 / G8	17:05 19:07	46:38	Show details Prediction details: Sho Tachibana Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 43–52 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 60 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -4.9 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h Running and total Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (3:49 / km) Error: −2:02 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 46:38 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km) Total: 46:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 34.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 47	Tatsuya Matsuura JPN	+55 s +61 s	G4 / G4 correct	17:06 17:41	46:39	Show details Prediction details: Tatsuya Matsuura Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 35–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -6.1 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h Running and total Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 46:39 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km) Total: 46:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 37.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 52	Iñaki Lorbes PHI	+48 s +49 s	G3 / G7	18:10 17:35	46:49	Show details Prediction details: Iñaki Lorbes Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 51–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 52 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -0.7 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.65 km/h Running and total Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 46:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km) Total: 46:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 30.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 42	Hinata Oyama JPN	+66 s +54 s	G4 / G4 correct	17:25 17:08	46:58	Show details Prediction details: Hinata Oyama Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 51–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 9:54 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: 11.7 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.7 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h Running and total Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:26 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:58 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Total: 46:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 47.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 49	Kamran Khodjaev UZB	+54 s +52 s	G4 / G5	17:35 17:46	47:08	Show details Prediction details: Kamran Khodjaev Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 46–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 49 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 9:42 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 1.6 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.56 km/h Running and total Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 47:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:26 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Total: 47:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 35.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 64	Man Kit Chao MAC	+40 s +80 s	G3 / G11	19:08 19:24	47:47	Show details Prediction details: Man Kit Chao Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 52–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 64 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: -39.6 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 53 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 11 (3 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h Running and total Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km) Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 47:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km) Total: 47:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 22.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 29	Christophe Gardner AUS	+76 s +64 s	G5 / G4	16:31 16:19	47:55	Show details Prediction details: Christophe Gardner Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 40–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: 28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: 11.7 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 4 (15 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.63 km/h Running and total Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 47:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.4 km/h) Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Total: 47:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 57.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 54	Sultan Aliev UZB	+76 s +79 s	G5 / G10	16:41 16:27	48:05	Show details Prediction details: Sultan Aliev Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 37–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 54 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: -3.1 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 36.4 s Result: Group 10 (2 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h Running and total Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 75 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:27 (3:17 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 48:05 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.4 km/h) Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km) Total: 48:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 58.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 61	Juan Miguel Tayag PHI	+114 s +85 s	G6 / G12	17:10 17:59	49:28	Show details Prediction details: Juan Miguel Tayag Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 59–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +114 s Time: 10:42 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: 29.0 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 71 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 13.2 s Result: Group 12 (3 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h Running and total Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km) Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 49:28 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:24 (39.1 km/h) Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km) Total: 49:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 96.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 58	Qi Yi Yap MAS	+74 s +82 s	G5 / G11	18:36 17:30	50:00	Show details Prediction details: Qi Yi Yap Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 58–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +82 s Fehler: -7.8 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 11 (3 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.10 km/h Running and total Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 50:00 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.4 km/h) Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km) Total: 50:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 56.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 53	Noritake Nagasho JPN	+44 s +51 s	G3 / G7	22:20 17:42	50:59	Show details Prediction details: Noritake Nagasho Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 62–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 53 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: -7.3 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 40.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h Running and total Run: 22:20 (4:28 / km) Historical basis: 4:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km) Error: +4:38 / +0:56 / km Overall prediction: 50:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (42.7 km/h) Run: 22:20 (4:28 / km) Total: 50:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 25.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 63	Chon Ip Chan MAC	+112 s +92 s	G6 / G12	19:13 18:20	51:31	Show details Prediction details: Chon Ip Chan Placement Prediction: 62 80% range: 62–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 63 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +112 s Time: 10:40 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: 20.3 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 36.4 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 12 (3 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h Running and total Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:40 / km) Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 51:31 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:24 (39.1 km/h) Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km) Total: 51:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 94.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
63 / 62	Kyan Kai Heng Low SGP	+72 s +80 s	G5 / G11	20:12 18:51	51:36	Show details Prediction details: Kyan Kai Heng Low Placement Prediction: 63 80% range: 61–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 62 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 10:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: -7.9 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.9 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 11 (3 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.06 km/h Running and total Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km) Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 51:36 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.4 km/h) Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Total: 51:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 54.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
64 / 65	Cheok Hei Lao MAC	+127 s +95 s	G7 / G12	19:05 19:43	52:37	Show details Prediction details: Cheok Hei Lao Placement Prediction: 64 80% range: 63–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 65 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +127 s Time: 10:55 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +95 s Fehler: 32.2 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.2 s Gap behind: 86.1 s Result: Group 12 (3 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (3:57 / km) Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 52:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (38.0 km/h) Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km) Total: 52:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 109.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 36	Conrad Visagie RSA	+0 s +77 s	G0 / G6	16:02		Show details Prediction details: Conrad Visagie Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 66–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:48 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 59	Ruslan Karnilov UZB	+213 s +70 s	G7 / G10	18:12		Show details Prediction details: Ruslan Karnilov Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 59 Deviation: -59 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +213 s Time: 12:21 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: 143.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 86.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (2 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:21 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (38.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 195.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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