Prediction comparison
PTS4 Men
01.06.2025
Schweinfurt
GER
Race information and calculation basis
2025 AUT Paratriathlon National Championships
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
70/100
mittel
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error0.0 s
Mean bike-speed error4.94 km/h
Correct bike groups1/1
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
Martin Falch
AUT
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
22:48
23:38
|
1:06:26 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 27.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.94 km/h
Running and totalRun: 22:48 (4:34 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:38 (4:44 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:06:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
9:57
(1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
43:38
(27.5 km/h)
Run:
22:48
(4:34 / km)
Total:
1:06:26
|