Prediction comparison

PTWC Men

18.10.2025 Wollongong AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Para Championships Wollongong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.0

Mean swim error54.9 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

					Details
0 / 1	Thomas Fruehwirth H1 AUT	+81 s +135 s	G0 / G1	26:08	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Fruehwirth H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +81 s Time: Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +135 s Fehler: -54.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 26:08 (2:37 / km) Historical basis: 2:38 / km Best comparable pace: 2:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:11 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:08 (2:37 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Florian Brungraber H2 AUT	+44 s +1 s	G0 / G2	23:41	Show details Prediction details: Florian Brungraber H2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 43.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 23:41 (2:22 / km) Historical basis: 2:27 / km Best comparable pace: 2:14 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.21 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:41 (2:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Louis Noel H2 FRA	+1 s +0 s	G0 / G3	29:21	Show details Prediction details: Louis Noel H2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1 s Time: Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 1.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 29:21 (2:56 / km) Historical basis: 2:55 / km Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:14 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:21 (2:56 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Howie Sanborn H1 USA	+207 s +155 s	G0 / G4	36:52	Show details Prediction details: Howie Sanborn H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +207 s Time: Pace: 2:02 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +155 s Fehler: 52.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -1.31 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 36:52 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 2:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.59 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:31 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 36:52 (3:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Giovanni Achenza H1 ITA	+92 s +126 s	G0 / G5	32:11	Show details Prediction details: Giovanni Achenza H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +126 s Fehler: -34.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 32:11 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:36 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:11 (3:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Joshua Landmann H2 GBR	+61 s +39 s	G0 / G4	27:08	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Landmann H2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 22.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 27:08 (2:43 / km) Historical basis: 2:47 / km Best comparable pace: 2:35 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:56 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 27:08 (2:43 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Jumpei Kimura H1 JPN	+0 s +112 s	G0 / G6	31:02	Show details Prediction details: Jumpei Kimura H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: -112.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 31:02 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:30 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:02 (3:06 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Justin Pines H1 USA	+359 s +255 s	G0 / G7	31:39	Show details Prediction details: Justin Pines H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +359 s Time: Pace: 2:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +255 s Fehler: 104.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 31:39 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:29 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:39 (3:10 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Tijn Van Lange-Verhoek H2 NED	+0 s +72 s	G0 / G4	31:54	Show details Prediction details: Tijn Van Lange-Verhoek H2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: -72.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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