Prediction comparison

PTWC Men

05.07.2026 CHI

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 61/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 30.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.9

Mean swim error109.7 s

Mean bike-speed error5.32 km/h

Correct bike groups0/8

No history2

Within the 80% range20.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 9	Benjamín Bobadila H1 CHI	+71 s +173 s	G2 / G8	17:46 23:40	55:23	Show details Prediction details: Benjamín Bobadila H1 Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 11:43 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +173 s Fehler: -102.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Gap ahead: 71.0 s Gap behind: 92.8 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 30.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.80 km/h Running and total Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 23:40 (4:44 / km) Error: −5:54 / −1:11 / km Overall prediction: 55:23 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:43 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:26 (35.6 km/h) Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Total: 55:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 68.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Fernando Aranha H2 BRA	+164 s +79 s	G3 / G2	16:33 15:21	59:05	Show details Prediction details: Fernando Aranha H2 Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +164 s Time: 13:16 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: 84.8 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 92.8 s Gap behind: 5.9 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.83 km/h Running and total Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 59:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:16 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:31 (32.7 km/h) Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Total: 59:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 160.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1	Howie Sanborn H1 USA	+181 s +0 s	G3 / G1	17:55 14:35	1:00:27	Show details Prediction details: Howie Sanborn H1 Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +181 s Time: 13:33 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 181.3 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.6 s Gap behind: 55.8 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -7.05 km/h Running and total Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km) Error: +3:20 / +0:40 / km Overall prediction: 1:00:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:33 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:31 (32.7 km/h) Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Total: 1:00:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 178.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Lucas Henrique Santana Rodrigues H1 BRA	+170 s +13 s	G3 / G4	18:26 14:45	1:00:58	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Henrique Santana Rodrigues H1 Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +170 s Time: 13:22 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 156.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.9 s Gap behind: 11.6 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 31.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.49 km/h Running and total Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (2:57 / km) Error: +3:41 / +0:44 / km Overall prediction: 1:00:58 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:22 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:31 (32.7 km/h) Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km) Total: 1:00:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 166.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3	Justin Pines H1 USA	+309 s +105 s	G4 / G3	15:15 14:20	1:04:43	Show details Prediction details: Justin Pines H1 Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +309 s Time: 15:41 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: 204.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.22 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 40.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.23 km/h Running and total Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:20 (2:52 / km) Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:04:43 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 15:41 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 44:19 (29.2 km/h) Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km) Total: 1:04:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 306.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4	Francisco Postlethwaite Muñoz H1 MEX	+237 s +156 s	G4 / G6	16:24 12:45	1:05:52	Show details Prediction details: Francisco Postlethwaite Muñoz H1 Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +237 s Time: 14:29 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +156 s Fehler: 81.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 55.8 s Gap behind: 31.9 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 33.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.95 km/h Running and total Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:45 (2:33 / km) Error: +3:39 / +0:44 / km Overall prediction: 1:05:52 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:29 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 44:19 (29.2 km/h) Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Total: 1:05:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 234.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Facundo Palacio H2 ARG	+269 s +202 s	G4 / G7	18:59 17:02	1:08:27	Show details Prediction details: Facundo Palacio H2 Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +269 s Time: 15:01 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +202 s Fehler: 67.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 31.9 s Gap behind: 40.3 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 30.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h Running and total Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:24 / km) Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 1:08:27 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 15:01 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 44:19 (29.2 km/h) Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km) Total: 1:08:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 266.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Owen Horsley H2 USA	+0 s +172 s	G0 / G5	15:05		Show details Prediction details: Owen Horsley H2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +172 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Welison Jose Antonio Damaceno H1 BRA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G9	19:10		Show details Prediction details: Welison Jose Antonio Damaceno H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 71.0 s Result: Group 9 (2 people) Speed: 27.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 13.47 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:10 (3:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:56 (40.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 10	Marcos Vinicius Barcellos da Silva H1 BRA	+0 s +438 s	G0 / G9	40:46		Show details Prediction details: Marcos Vinicius Barcellos da Silva H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +438 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (2 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:46 (8:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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