Prediction comparison

Elite Men

26.04.2026 Clearwater Beach BER

Race information and calculation basis

2026 BER Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 22 früheren Rennen und 456 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 41.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 26.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 6.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 22 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.3

Mean swim error181.9 s

Mean bike-speed error2.83 km/h

Correct bike groups2/3

No history12

Within the 80% range73.3 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Tyler Smith BER	+38 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	32:51 34:20	1:33:19	Show details Prediction details: Tyler Smith Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 18:46 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 38.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 108.7 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h Running and total Run: 32:51 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Ergebnis Lauf: 34:20 (3:24 / km) Error: −1:29 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:46 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:50 (40.8 km/h) Run: 32:51 (3:15 / km) Total: 1:33:19
2 / 2	Jackson Langley BER	+147 s +118 s	G2 / G2 correct	43:24 38:27	1:49:12	Show details Prediction details: Jackson Langley Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +147 s Time: 20:35 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +118 s Fehler: 28.7 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Gap ahead: 108.7 s Gap behind: 616.3 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h Running and total Run: 43:24 (4:18 / km) Historical basis: 4:18 / km Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:27 (3:48 / km) Error: +4:57 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:12 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 20:35 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:22 (38.5 km/h) Run: 43:24 (4:18 / km) Total: 1:49:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:50 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 104.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Michael Evans BER	+0 s +343 s	G0 / G3	38:24		Show details Prediction details: Michael Evans Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +343 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:24 (3:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Ian Henderson BER	+763 s +284 s	G3 / G4	47:02		Show details Prediction details: Ian Henderson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +763 s Time: 30:51 Pace: 2:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +284 s Fehler: 479.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Gap ahead: 616.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 33.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.54 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:02 (4:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 30:51 (2:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:10 (40.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:50 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 721.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Phil Woolins BER	+0 s +432 s	G0 / G7	41:55		Show details Prediction details: Phil Woolins Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +432 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 30.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:55 (4:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Ben Farrell BER	+0 s +554 s	G0 / G6	47:25		Show details Prediction details: Ben Farrell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +554 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 31.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:25 (4:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Scott Oliver BER	+0 s +212 s	G0 / G5	39:02		Show details Prediction details: Scott Oliver Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +212 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 30.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:02 (3:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Clifford Roberts BER	+0 s +910 s	G0 / G8	57:09		Show details Prediction details: Clifford Roberts Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +910 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 32.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 57:09 (5:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Steve Horton BER	+0 s +705 s	G0 / G10	57:16		Show details Prediction details: Steve Horton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +705 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 30.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 57:16 (5:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Carlo Pinardi BER	+0 s +795 s	G0 / G11	57:08		Show details Prediction details: Carlo Pinardi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +795 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 57:08 (5:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Nick Greet BER	+0 s +1163 s	G0 / G13	54:18		Show details Prediction details: Nick Greet Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1163 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 13 (1 people) Speed: 29.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 54:18 (5:23 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Vaugh Rowse BER	+0 s +155 s	G0 / G12	1:05:49		Show details Prediction details: Vaugh Rowse Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +155 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 12 (2 people) Speed: 25.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:05:49 (6:31 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Gordon Smith BER	+0 s +471 s	G0 / G9	1:15:34		Show details Prediction details: Gordon Smith Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 13–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +471 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 29.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:15:34 (7:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Handsome Williams BER	+0 s +333 s	G0 / G12	1:10:13		Show details Prediction details: Handsome Williams Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 14–14 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +333 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 12 (2 people) Speed: 26.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:10:13 (6:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15	Andrew Tredinnick BER	+0 s +1023 s	G0 / G14	1:11:00		Show details Prediction details: Andrew Tredinnick Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 15–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:08 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1023 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 14 (1 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:11:00 (7:02 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:08 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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