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50-54 Female AG

14.06.2026 Tarragona ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Age-Group Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 11 früheren Rennen und 277 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 51.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 71.4 % · 11 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.0
Mean swim error121.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.25 km/h
Correct bike groups1/21
No history7
Within the 80% range21.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Yolanda Mir Cuñat
ESP
+141 s
+109 s
G1 / G3
 41:20
41:51
 1:53:05
Show details
Prediction details: Yolanda Mir Cuñat

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +141 s
Time: 26:26
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +109 s
Fehler: 31.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:20 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:51 (4:11 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:53:05
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:26 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:58 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 41:20 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:53:05
2 / 1 Philippa Fancourt
GBR
+167 s
+117 s
G1 / G1
correct 		42:34
43:25
 1:54:19
Show details
Prediction details: Philippa Fancourt

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +167 s
Time: 26:52
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +117 s
Fehler: 50.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.0 s
Gap behind: 54.8 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:34 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:25 (4:21 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:54:19
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:52 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:58 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 42:34 (4:15 / km)
Total: 1:54:19
3 / 7 Louise Croxson
GBR
+11 s
+0 s
G1 / G4
 44:57
51:14
 1:56:42
Show details
Prediction details: Louise Croxson

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 24:16
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 127.2 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:57 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:14 (5:07 / km)
Error: −6:17 / −0:38 / km
Overall prediction: 1:56:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:16 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:58 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 44:57 (4:30 / km)
Total: 1:56:42
4 / 6 Caroline Holme
GBR
+138 s
+177 s
G1 / G8
 45:29
44:54
 1:57:14
Show details
Prediction details: Caroline Holme

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +138 s
Time: 26:23
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +177 s
Fehler: -38.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 127.2 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:29 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:54 (4:29 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:57:14
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 26:23 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:58 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 45:29 (4:33 / km)
Total: 1:57:14
5 / 5 Teresa Green
GBR
+222 s
+107 s
G2 / G7
 39:38
44:28
 1:57:28
Show details
Prediction details: Teresa Green

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +222 s
Time: 27:47
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: 114.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 54.8 s
Gap behind: 22.7 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:38 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:28 (4:27 / km)
Error: −4:50 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:57:28
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 27:47 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 39:38 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:57:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 76.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9 Janet Fletcher
GBR
+141 s
+118 s
G1 / G9
 45:55
47:03
 1:57:40
Show details
Prediction details: Janet Fletcher

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +141 s
Time: 26:26
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +118 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 26.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:55 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:03 (4:42 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:57:40
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:26 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:58 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 45:55 (4:36 / km)
Total: 1:57:40
7 / 10 Amelia Drumm
IRL
+395 s
+415 s
G2 / G13
 40:53
43:37
 1:58:43
Show details
Prediction details: Amelia Drumm

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +395 s
Time: 30:40
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +415 s
Fehler: -19.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 73.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:53 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:37 (4:22 / km)
Error: −2:44 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:43
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 30:40 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 40:53 (4:05 / km)
Total: 1:58:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 250.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 Clare McCulloch
GBR
+322 s
+206 s
G2 / G11
 42:20
46:30
 2:00:10
Show details
Prediction details: Clare McCulloch

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +322 s
Time: 29:27
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +206 s
Fehler: 115.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 62.8 s
Gap behind: 73.5 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:20 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:30 (4:39 / km)
Error: −4:10 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 2:00:10
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 29:27 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 42:20 (4:14 / km)
Total: 2:00:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 176.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11 Elizabeth Ricaud
FRA
+396 s
+336 s
G2 / G10
 44:07
48:01
 2:01:57
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Ricaud

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +396 s
Time: 30:41
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +336 s
Fehler: 60.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:07 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:01 (4:48 / km)
Error: −3:54 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 2:01:57
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 30:41 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 44:07 (4:25 / km)
Total: 2:01:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 251.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3 Gail Crawford
GBR
+245 s
+121 s
G2 / G5
 44:11
45:26
 2:02:01
Show details
Prediction details: Gail Crawford

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +245 s
Time: 28:10
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +121 s
Fehler: 123.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.7 s
Gap behind: 14.5 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:11 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:26 (4:33 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:01
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 28:10 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 44:11 (4:25 / km)
Total: 2:02:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 99.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 4 Sophie Longchamp
SUI
+400 s
+301 s
G2 / G6
 44:26
45:25
 2:02:16
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Longchamp

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +400 s
Time: 30:45
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +301 s
Fehler: 98.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 65.5 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:26 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:25 (4:33 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:16
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 30:45 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 44:26 (4:27 / km)
Total: 2:02:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 254.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 17 Ruth Bacci
GBR
+259 s
+155 s
G2 / G12
 52:42
53:57
 2:10:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ruth Bacci

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +259 s
Time: 28:24
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +155 s
Fehler: 104.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.5 s
Gap behind: 62.8 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 52:42 (5:16 / km)
Historical basis: 5:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.79 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 53:57 (5:24 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 2:10:32
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 28:24 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 52:42 (5:16 / km)
Total: 2:10:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 114.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 16 Helen McClure
GBR
+499 s
+289 s
G4 / G14
 48:03
51:32
 2:13:26
Show details
Prediction details: Helen McClure

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +499 s
Time: 32:24
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +289 s
Fehler: 209.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.9 s
Gap behind: 40.1 s
Result: Group 14 (2 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:03 (4:48 / km)
Historical basis: 4:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:32 (5:09 / km)
Error: −3:29 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 2:13:26
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 32:24 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:17:04 (31.1 km/h)
Run: 48:03 (4:48 / km)
Total: 2:13:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 353.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 15 Ann Brennan
GBR
+473 s
+368 s
G3 / G16
 54:47
48:08
 2:15:24
Show details
Prediction details: Ann Brennan

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 15–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +473 s
Time: 31:58
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +368 s
Fehler: 104.8 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.8 s
Gap behind: 25.9 s
Result: Group 16 (2 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:47 (5:29 / km)
Historical basis: 5:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:08 (4:49 / km)
Error: +6:39 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 2:15:24
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 31:58 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:44 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 54:47 (5:29 / km)
Total: 2:15:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
15 / 18 Sarah Stuart
GBR
+539 s
+279 s
G5 / G17
 44:58
49:34
 2:16:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Stuart

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 15–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +539 s
Time: 33:04
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +279 s
Fehler: 259.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.1 s
Gap behind: 32.0 s
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:58 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:34 (4:57 / km)
Error: −4:36 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 2:16:08
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 33:04 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:40 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 44:58 (4:30 / km)
Total: 2:16:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 393.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 19 Emmanuelle Navarri
GBR
+571 s
+441 s
G5 / G15
 47:27
52:01
 2:18:37
Show details
Prediction details: Emmanuelle Navarri

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +571 s
Time: 33:36
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +441 s
Fehler: 129.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.0 s
Gap behind: 115.0 s
Result: Group 15 (2 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:27 (4:45 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:01 (5:12 / km)
Error: −4:34 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 2:18:37
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 33:36 (2:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:21:40 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 47:27 (4:45 / km)
Total: 2:18:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 425.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 21 Agnieszka Kotlarska
POL
+852 s
+589 s
G7 / G19
 46:45
52:12
 2:21:03
Show details
Prediction details: Agnieszka Kotlarska

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +852 s
Time: 38:17
Pace: 2:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +589 s
Fehler: 262.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.4 s
Gap behind: 246.5 s
Result: Group 19 (1 people)
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 46:45 (4:40 / km)
Historical basis: 4:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:12 (5:13 / km)
Error: −5:27 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 2:21:03
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 38:17 (2:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:20:06 (29.8 km/h)
Run: 46:45 (4:40 / km)
Total: 2:21:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 706.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 23 Hanne Engen
NOR
+817 s
+686 s
G7 / G21
 48:51
49:47
 2:23:09
Show details
Prediction details: Hanne Engen

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +817 s
Time: 37:42
Pace: 2:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +686 s
Fehler: 131.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 131.6 s
Gap behind: 34.4 s
Result: Group 21 (2 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:51 (4:53 / km)
Historical basis: 4:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:47 (4:59 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 2:23:09
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 37:42 (2:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:20:06 (29.8 km/h)
Run: 48:51 (4:53 / km)
Total: 2:23:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 672.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 25 Magali Dejean
FRA
+686 s
+611 s
G6 / G21
 51:42
52:45
 2:25:25
Show details
Prediction details: Magali Dejean

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +686 s
Time: 35:31
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +611 s
Fehler: 74.8 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 115.0 s
Gap behind: 131.6 s
Result: Group 21 (2 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:42 (5:10 / km)
Historical basis: 5:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:45 (5:17 / km)
Error: −1:03 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 2:25:25
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 35:31 (2:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:22:17 (29.2 km/h)
Run: 51:42 (5:10 / km)
Total: 2:25:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 540.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 28 Sandra Maire
BEL
+1,098 s
+804 s
G8 / G23
 54:46
57:04
 2:36:07
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Maire

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,098 s
Time: 42:23
Pace: 2:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +804 s
Fehler: 294.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 246.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 23 (1 people)
Speed: 27.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:46 (5:29 / km)
Historical basis: 5:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 57:04 (5:42 / km)
Error: −2:18 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 2:36:07
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 42:23 (2:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:23:02 (28.9 km/h)
Run: 54:46 (5:29 / km)
Total: 2:36:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:30
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 953.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +144.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Katie Sanderson
GBR
+0 s
+252 s
G0 / G8
46:24
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Sanderson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:05
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +252 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:24 (4:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:05 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Mary Cooper
GBR
+465 s
+170 s
G2 / G6
53:08
Show details
Prediction details: Mary Cooper

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +465 s
Time: 31:50
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +170 s
Fehler: 295.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 65.5 s
Gap behind: 7.8 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 53:08 (5:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 31:50 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:05 (33.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 27:43
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 247.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +217.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Kathryn Mayes
GBR
+0 s
+55 s
G0 / G14
49:27
Show details
Prediction details: Kathryn Mayes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:05
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (2 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:27 (4:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:05 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20 Sam Maher
GBR
+0 s
+73 s
G0 / G15
51:49
Show details
Prediction details: Sam Maher

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:05
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 15 (2 people)
Speed: 29.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:49 (5:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:05 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22 Marion Noulhiane
FRA
+0 s
+311 s
G0 / G16
55:54
Show details
Prediction details: Marion Noulhiane

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:05
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +311 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 16 (2 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 55:54 (5:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:05 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24 Véronique Morsiau
BEL
+0 s
+391 s
G0 / G18
56:43
Show details
Prediction details: Véronique Morsiau

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:05
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +391 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 18 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 56:43 (5:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:05 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Nadine Zidek
GER
+0 s
+476 s
G0 / G20
1:05:20
Show details
Prediction details: Nadine Zidek

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:05
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +476 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 20 (1 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:05:20 (6:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:05 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27 Valérie Simon
BEL
+0 s
+475 s
G0 / G22
1:04:18
Show details
Prediction details: Valérie Simon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:05
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +475 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 22 (1 people)
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:04:18 (6:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:05 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.