Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

65-69 Open AG Sprint

13.06.2026 Tarragona ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Age-Group Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 66/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 65 früheren Rennen und 1015 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 12.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 32.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 48.0 % · 65 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.5
Mean swim error77.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.33 km/h
Correct bike groups3/19
No history6
Within the 80% range8.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Kelvin Spencer
GBR
+53 s
+115 s
G1 / G2
 21:15
21:35
 53:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kelvin Spencer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 12:06
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +115 s
Fehler: -61.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.4 s
Gap behind: 19.6 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:15 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:35 (4:19 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:28
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:06 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 21:15 (4:15 / km)
Total: 53:28
2 / 3 Denis Pierrat
FRA
+31 s
+120 s
G1 / G2
 21:29
22:16
 53:42
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Pierrat

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 11:44
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +120 s
Fehler: -89.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 31.0 s
Gap behind: 22.4 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:29 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:16 (4:27 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 53:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:44 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 21:29 (4:18 / km)
Total: 53:42
3 / 4 Andy Bourne
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		23:30
23:42
 55:43
Show details
Prediction details: Andy Bourne

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 31.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:30 (4:42 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:42 (4:44 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 55:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 23:30 (4:42 / km)
Total: 55:43
4 / 1 Christopher Gibbs
GBR
+82 s
+126 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:49
19:41
 57:59
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Gibbs

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 12:35
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +126 s
Fehler: -44.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 16.8 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 57:59
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:35 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:36 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Total: 57:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 23.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Ralf Laermann
GER
+154 s
+166 s
G2 / G3
 21:06
23:20
 58:16
Show details
Prediction details: Ralf Laermann

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +154 s
Time: 13:47
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +166 s
Fehler: -12.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 13.8 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:06 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:20 (4:40 / km)
Error: −2:14 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 58:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:47 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:36 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 21:06 (4:13 / km)
Total: 58:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 95.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Ewan Cox
GBR
+99 s
+152 s
G2 / G3
 22:29
22:07
 59:39
Show details
Prediction details: Ewan Cox

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +99 s
Time: 12:52
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +152 s
Fehler: -53.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.8 s
Gap behind: 14.8 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:29 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:07 (4:25 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 59:39
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:52 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:36 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 22:29 (4:30 / km)
Total: 59:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 40.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Keith Muggleton
GBR
+147 s
+130 s
G2 / G4
 24:41
23:46
 1:01:51
Show details
Prediction details: Keith Muggleton

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 12–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +147 s
Time: 13:40
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +130 s
Fehler: 16.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.0 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:41 (4:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:46 (4:45 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:51
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:40 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:36 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 24:41 (4:56 / km)
Total: 1:01:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 88.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 11 Reinhold Garnitschnig
AUT
+244 s
+266 s
G4 / G6
 23:43
23:19
 1:01:59
Show details
Prediction details: Reinhold Garnitschnig

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +244 s
Time: 15:17
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +266 s
Fehler: -22.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.10 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 65.9 s
Gap behind: 34.3 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:43 (4:45 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:19 (4:40 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:59
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:17 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:38 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 23:43 (4:45 / km)
Total: 1:01:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 185.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 16 Nick Care
GBR
+171 s
+241 s
G4 / G10
 23:44
24:02
 1:02:00
Show details
Prediction details: Nick Care

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +171 s
Time: 14:04
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +241 s
Fehler: -69.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:44 (4:45 / km)
Historical basis: 4:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:02 (4:48 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:00
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:04 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:38 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 23:44 (4:45 / km)
Total: 1:02:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 112.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 10 Martin Darlison
GBR
+168 s
+160 s
G4 / G6
 23:50
23:15
 1:02:06
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Darlison

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +168 s
Time: 14:01
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +160 s
Fehler: 7.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.8 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:50 (4:46 / km)
Historical basis: 4:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:15 (4:39 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:06
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:01 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:38 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 23:50 (4:46 / km)
Total: 1:02:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 109.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Javier Catasus Brise
ESP
+75 s
+114 s
G3 / G3
correct 		25:37
24:18
 1:03:03
Show details
Prediction details: Javier Catasus Brise

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 13–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 12:28
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: -39.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:37 (5:07 / km)
Historical basis: 5:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:18 (4:52 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:03
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (33.2 km/h)
Run: 25:37 (5:07 / km)
Total: 1:03:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Richard Barr
GBR
+446 s
+269 s
G6 / G11
 20:57
22:29
 1:03:20
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Barr

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +446 s
Time: 18:39
Pace: 2:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +269 s
Fehler: 177.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 112.3 s
Gap behind: 108.4 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:29 (4:30 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:20
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 18:39 (2:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:56 (34.3 km/h)
Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km)
Total: 1:03:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 388 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 20 Michael Doyle
GBR
+334 s
+228 s
G5 / G11
 23:03
26:19
 1:03:48
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Doyle

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +334 s
Time: 16:47
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +228 s
Fehler: 106.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 55.8 s
Gap behind: 112.3 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:03 (4:37 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:19 (5:16 / km)
Error: −3:16 / −0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:48
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:47 (2:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:11 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 23:03 (4:37 / km)
Total: 1:03:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 275.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 21 John Clements
GBR
+114 s
+221 s
G2 / G7
 27:58
28:01
 1:05:08
Show details
Prediction details: John Clements

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +114 s
Time: 13:07
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +221 s
Fehler: -107.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.8 s
Gap behind: 33.0 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:58 (5:36 / km)
Historical basis: 5:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:01 (5:36 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:08
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:07 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:36 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 27:58 (5:36 / km)
Total: 1:05:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 55.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 25 Luc Vickevorst
BEL
+555 s
+418 s
G7 / G15
 31:11
29:16
 1:16:03
Show details
Prediction details: Luc Vickevorst

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +555 s
Time: 20:28
Pace: 2:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +418 s
Fehler: 136.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 108.4 s
Gap behind: 177.3 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:11 (6:14 / km)
Historical basis: 6:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:16 (5:51 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:03
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:28 (2:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:40 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 31:11 (6:14 / km)
Total: 1:16:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 496.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +58.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Andrew Shaw
GBR
+0 s
+173 s
G0 / G5
23:12
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Shaw

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +173 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:12 (4:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Steve Hope
GBR
+0 s
+280 s
G0 / G8
24:04
Show details
Prediction details: Steve Hope

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +280 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:04 (4:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Andy Osborne
GBR
+178 s
+184 s
G4 / G6
25:02
Show details
Prediction details: Andy Osborne

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +178 s
Time: 14:11
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +184 s
Fehler: -6.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 65.9 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:02 (5:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:11 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:38 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:21
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 110.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Theo Mosch
NED
+0 s
+149 s
G0 / G3
27:04
Show details
Prediction details: Theo Mosch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +149 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:04 (5:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Fabrizio Ricci
ITA
+0 s
+248 s
G0 / G12
23:04
Show details
Prediction details: Fabrizio Ricci

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +248 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:04 (4:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Franz-Josef Thölking
GER
+73 s
+144 s
G3 / G6
25:18
Show details
Prediction details: Franz-Josef Thölking

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 12:26
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +144 s
Fehler: -71.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.6 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:18 (5:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:26 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (33.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:23
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 3.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Luc Koyen
BEL
+0 s
+247 s
G0 / G7
25:10
Show details
Prediction details: Luc Koyen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +247 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:10 (5:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22 David Scott
GBR
+732 s
+314 s
G7 / G13
26:04
Show details
Prediction details: David Scott

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +732 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 3:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +314 s
Fehler: 418.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 177.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:04 (5:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 23:25 (3:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:40 (33.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:21
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 664.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Franco Calvetti
ITA
+0 s
+361 s
G0 / G14
23:42
Show details
Prediction details: Franco Calvetti

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +361 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:42 (4:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24 Keith Smith
GBR
+278 s
+241 s
G4 / G9
30:16
Show details
Prediction details: Keith Smith

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +278 s
Time: 15:51
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +241 s
Fehler: 37.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.3 s
Gap behind: 55.8 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:16 (6:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:51 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:38 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:21
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 210.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.