Prediction comparison

20-24 Open AG

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 29/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 37.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.0

Mean bike-speed error19.88 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history3

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Gabriel Bacquenois FRA	+141 s	G0 / G1	23:40 22:30	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Bacquenois Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +141 s Time: Pace: 1:36 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 24.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -24.35 km/h Running and total Run: 23:40 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:30 (7:02 / km) Error: +1:10 / −3:27 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:40 (3:35 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Yordi Druijff NED	+0 s	G0 / G2	21:49	Show details Prediction details: Yordi Druijff Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 23.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (6:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Pablo Fernandez Palma ESP	+51 s	G0 / G3	22:59 21:48	Show details Prediction details: Pablo Fernandez Palma Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: Pace: 1:24 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 22.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -21.95 km/h Running and total Run: 22:59 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:48 (6:49 / km) Error: +1:11 / −3:20 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:59 (3:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Mario Gallego De La Sacristana Fernandez Caballero ESP	+0 s	G0 / G3	22:34	Show details Prediction details: Mario Gallego De La Sacristana Fernandez Caballero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 22.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:34 (7:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Stan Gheysens BEL	+0 s	G0 / G4	24:16	Show details Prediction details: Stan Gheysens Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 21.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:16 (7:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Emilio Fernández Gallardo ESP	+177 s	G0 / G5	32:21 28:40	Show details Prediction details: Emilio Fernández Gallardo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +177 s Time: Pace: 1:39 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 19.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -19.90 km/h Running and total Run: 32:21 (4:54 / km) Historical basis: 4:54 / km Best comparable pace: 4:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:40 (8:58 / km) Error: +3:41 / −4:03 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:21 (4:54 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Gerard Rodriguez Viladrich ESP	+86 s	G0 / G6	26:26 23:03	Show details Prediction details: Gerard Rodriguez Viladrich Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +86 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 16.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -16.51 km/h Running and total Run: 26:26 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:03 (7:12 / km) Error: +3:23 / −3:12 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:26 (4:00 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Liam Tupling GBR	+438 s	G0 / G7	51:19 26:06	Show details Prediction details: Liam Tupling Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +438 s Time: Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 16.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -16.68 km/h Running and total Run: 51:19 (7:47 / km) Historical basis: 7:47 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:06 (8:09 / km) Error: +25:13 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 51:19 (7:47 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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