Prediction comparison

45-49 Female AG

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 33/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 11 früheren Rennen und 66 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 0.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 83.3 % · 11 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.5

Mean bike-speed error17.65 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Tatiana Sammartano ITA	+98 s	G0 / G1	30:47 28:49	Show details Prediction details: Tatiana Sammartano Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +98 s Time: Pace: 1:50 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 19.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -19.70 km/h Running and total Run: 30:47 (4:40 / km) Historical basis: 4:40 / km Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:49 (9:00 / km) Error: +1:58 / −4:20 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 30:47 (4:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Danica Bonello Spiteri MLT	+0 s	G0 / G2	28:38 26:55	Show details Prediction details: Danica Bonello Spiteri Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:40 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 17.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -17.92 km/h Running and total Run: 28:38 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:55 (8:25 / km) Error: +1:43 / −4:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:38 (4:20 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Ana Celia Creus Del Campo ESP	+145 s	G0 / G3	31:07 30:05	Show details Prediction details: Ana Celia Creus Del Campo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +145 s Time: Pace: 1:55 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 18.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -18.55 km/h Running and total Run: 31:07 (4:43 / km) Historical basis: 4:43 / km Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 30:05 (9:24 / km) Error: +1:02 / −4:41 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:07 (4:43 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Emma Town GBR	+0 s	G0 / G4	30:59 27:29	Show details Prediction details: Emma Town Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 17.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -17.15 km/h Running and total Run: 30:59 (4:42 / km) Historical basis: 4:42 / km Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 27:29 (8:35 / km) Error: +3:30 / −3:54 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 30:59 (4:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Karina Kaufmann GBR	+328 s	G0 / G5	35:38 32:04	Show details Prediction details: Karina Kaufmann Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +328 s Time: Pace: 2:05 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 16.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -16.62 km/h Running and total Run: 35:38 (5:24 / km) Historical basis: 5:24 / km Best comparable pace: 5:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:04 (10:01 / km) Error: +3:34 / −4:37 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 35:38 (5:24 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Stefanie Annika Wasmundt GER	+303 s	G0 / G6	37:21 35:48	Show details Prediction details: Stefanie Annika Wasmundt Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +303 s Time: Pace: 2:11 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 16.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -15.95 km/h Running and total Run: 37:21 (5:40 / km) Historical basis: 5:45 / km Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km Trend: −0:06 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:48 (11:11 / km) Error: +1:33 / −5:32 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:21 (5:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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