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45-49 Female AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 59/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 166 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 44.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 44.4 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.3
Mean swim error52.1 s
Mean bike-speed error13.20 km/h
Correct bike groups0/6
No history3
Within the 80% range11.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Carole Perrot
SUI
+54 s
+105 s
G2 / G1
 33:14
31:09
 1:07:26
Show details
Prediction details: Carole Perrot

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 17:20
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: -51.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 53.8 s
Gap behind: 14.6 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 20.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:14 (5:02 / km)
Historical basis: 5:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:09 (4:43 / km)
Error: +2:05 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:20 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:18 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 33:14 (5:02 / km)
Total: 1:07:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:32
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 47.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Danica Bonello Spiteri
MLT
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 35:46
28:39
 1:07:56
Show details
Prediction details: Danica Bonello Spiteri

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:26
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.79 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 53.8 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 18.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:46 (5:25 / km)
Historical basis: 5:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:39 (4:20 / km)
Error: +7:07 / +1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:26 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:10 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 35:46 (5:25 / km)
Total: 1:07:56
3 / 6 Karina Kaufmann
GBR
+311 s
+244 s
G3 / G5
 30:16
35:39
 1:14:13
Show details
Prediction details: Karina Kaufmann

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +311 s
Time: 21:37
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +244 s
Fehler: 66.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 75.3 s
Gap behind: 64.3 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 16.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:16 (4:35 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:39 (5:24 / km)
Error: −5:23 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 1:14:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:37 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:42 (29.1 km/h)
Run: 30:16 (4:35 / km)
Total: 1:14:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:48
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
About 289.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 9 Vanessa Huesa Moreno
ESP
+236 s
+143 s
G3 / G7
 32:51
35:13
 1:16:48
Show details
Prediction details: Vanessa Huesa Moreno

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +236 s
Time: 20:22
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +143 s
Fehler: 92.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 167.2 s
Gap behind: 75.3 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 14.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:51 (4:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:13 (5:20 / km)
Error: −2:22 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:48
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:22 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:42 (29.1 km/h)
Run: 32:51 (4:59 / km)
Total: 1:16:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:32
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 229.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Tatiana Sammartano
ITA
+68 s
+98 s
G3 / G2
 34:21
30:48
 1:18:18
Show details
Prediction details: Tatiana Sammartano

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 17:34
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +98 s
Fehler: -29.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.64 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.6 s
Gap behind: 167.2 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 20.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:21 (5:12 / km)
Historical basis: 5:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:48 (4:40 / km)
Error: +3:33 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 1:18:18
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:34 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:42 (29.1 km/h)
Run: 34:21 (5:12 / km)
Total: 1:18:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:32
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 62.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Stefanie Annika Wasmundt
GER
+375 s
+303 s
G3 / G6
 40:02
37:55
 1:23:59
Show details
Prediction details: Stefanie Annika Wasmundt

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +375 s
Time: 22:41
Pace: 2:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +303 s
Fehler: 72.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 64.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 16.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:02 (6:04 / km)
Historical basis: 6:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:55 (5:45 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:41 (2:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:42 (29.1 km/h)
Run: 40:02 (6:04 / km)
Total: 1:23:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:32
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 369.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Ana Celia Creus Del Campo
ESP
+0 s
+145 s
G0 / G3
31:08
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Celia Creus Del Campo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:26
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +145 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 18.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:08 (4:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:26 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Marianne Pauly
FRA
+0 s
+71 s
G0 / G4
32:59
Show details
Prediction details: Marianne Pauly

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:26
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 18.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:59 (5:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:26 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Michelle Batchelor
GBR
+0 s
+103 s
G0 / G8
31:55
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Batchelor

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:26
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 14.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:55 (4:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:26 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.