Prediction comparison

60-64 Female AG

12.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 15/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 165 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 11.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.0

Mean bike-speed error28.94 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Sylvie Parmantier FRA	+0 s	G0 / G1	45:38 44:56	Show details Prediction details: Sylvie Parmantier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.26 km/h Running and total Run: 45:38 (4:34 / km) Historical basis: 4:34 / km Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 44:56 (8:59 / km) Error: +0:42 / −4:25 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 45:38 (4:34 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Jayne Baldwin GBR	+53 s	G0 / G3	43:49 46:11	Show details Prediction details: Jayne Baldwin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -28.74 km/h Running and total Run: 43:49 (4:23 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 46:11 (9:14 / km) Error: −2:22 / −4:51 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 43:49 (4:23 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Janine Pattison GBR	+0 s	G0 / G2	51:45	Show details Prediction details: Janine Pattison Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -31.68 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 51:45 (10:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Valerie Martin GBR	+0 s	G0 / G4	1:30:34 49:39	Show details Prediction details: Valerie Martin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 29.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -29.69 km/h Running and total Run: 1:30:34 (9:03 / km) Historical basis: 9:03 / km Best comparable pace: 9:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 49:39 (9:56 / km) Error: +40:55 / −0:52 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 1:30:34 (9:03 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Haley Pritchard-Suttle GBR	+447 s	G0 / G5	50:06	Show details Prediction details: Haley Pritchard-Suttle Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +447 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 28.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -28.06 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 50:06 (10:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Anne Walton GBR	+317 s	G0 / G6	55:12 49:37	Show details Prediction details: Anne Walton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +317 s Time: Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 27.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -26.98 km/h Running and total Run: 55:12 (5:31 / km) Historical basis: 5:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 49:37 (9:55 / km) Error: +5:35 / −4:24 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 55:12 (5:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Jess Mcmorris GBR	+0 s	G0 / G7	1:42:35 52:07	Show details Prediction details: Jess Mcmorris Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 27.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -27.56 km/h Running and total Run: 1:42:35 (10:15 / km) Historical basis: 10:15 / km Best comparable pace: 10:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 52:07 (10:25 / km) Error: +50:28 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 1:42:35 (10:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Julie Hill GBR	+0 s	G0 / G8	56:35	Show details Prediction details: Julie Hill Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -28.71 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 56:35 (11:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Louise Southgate GBR	+0 s	G0 / G9	54:59	Show details Prediction details: Louise Southgate Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 26.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -26.79 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 54:59 (11:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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