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Prediction comparison

60-64 Open AG

12.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 12 früheren Rennen und 194 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 2.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 22.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 44.4 % · 12 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.6
Mean bike-speed error31.51 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history2
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Claus Nygaard Larsen
DEN
+0 s
G0 / G3
41:11
Show details
Prediction details: Claus Nygaard Larsen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:11 (8:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Innes Wright
GBR
+84 s
G0 / G4
 41:49
41:02
Show details
Prediction details: Innes Wright

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time:
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:49 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:02 (8:12 / km)
Error: +0:47 / −4:01 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 41:49 (4:11 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Iain Martin
GBR
+492 s
G0 / G5
 42:52
41:52
Show details
Prediction details: Iain Martin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +492 s
Time:
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -33.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:52 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:52 (8:22 / km)
Error: +1:00 / −4:05 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 42:52 (4:17 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Owen Barron
IRL
+744 s
G0 / G5
 43:30
43:21
Show details
Prediction details: Owen Barron

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +744 s
Time:
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -34.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:30 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:21 (8:40 / km)
Error: +0:09 / −4:19 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 43:30 (4:21 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Didier Vandenbosch
BEL
+367 s
G0 / G6
 1:23:03
40:55
Show details
Prediction details: Didier Vandenbosch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +367 s
Time:
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -33.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:23:03 (8:18 / km)
Historical basis: 8:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:55 (8:11 / km)
Error: +42:08 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:23:03 (8:18 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Ricardo Valenzuela Cruz
ESP
+366 s
G0 / G7
 42:30
42:54
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Valenzuela Cruz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +366 s
Time:
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -33.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:30 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:54 (8:35 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −4:20 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 42:30 (4:15 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Clifford Puttock
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G8
 1:18:01
42:05
Show details
Prediction details: Clifford Puttock

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:18:01 (7:48 / km)
Historical basis: 8:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:05 (8:25 / km)
Error: +35:56 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:18:01 (7:48 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Luis Miguel Sanchez Garcia
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G8
 1:26:42
44:18
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Miguel Sanchez Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -33.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:26:42 (8:40 / km)
Historical basis: 8:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:18 (8:52 / km)
Error: +42:24 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:26:42 (8:40 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Steve Almond
GBR
+0 s
 Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Steve Almond

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Luc Hernaert
BEL
+0 s
 Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Luc Hernaert

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Vincent Plé
FRA
+0 s
G0 / G9
 1:26:52
43:07
Show details
Prediction details: Vincent Plé

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:26:52 (8:41 / km)
Historical basis: 8:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:07 (8:37 / km)
Error: +43:45 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:26:52 (8:41 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Christopher Simpson
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G10
 52:55
47:23
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Simpson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 52:55 (5:17 / km)
Historical basis: 5:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:23 (9:29 / km)
Error: +5:32 / −4:11 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 52:55 (5:17 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Rafael Cuevas Díaz
ESP
+732 s
G0 / G11
 43:11
44:21
Show details
Prediction details: Rafael Cuevas Díaz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +732 s
Time:
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -29.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:11 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:21 (8:52 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −4:33 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 43:11 (4:19 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Mark York
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G13
 1:22:18
51:02
Show details
Prediction details: Mark York

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:22:18 (8:14 / km)
Historical basis: 8:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:02 (10:12 / km)
Error: +31:16 / −1:59 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:22:18 (8:14 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 James Chattaway
GBR
+969 s
G0 / G12
 1:04:15
51:12
Show details
Prediction details: James Chattaway

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +969 s
Time:
Pace: 2:28 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:04:15 (6:25 / km)
Historical basis: 6:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.14 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:12 (10:14 / km)
Error: +13:03 / −3:49 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:04:15 (6:25 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Keith Earle
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G14
49:26
Show details
Prediction details: Keith Earle

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -29.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:26 (9:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Steve Owen
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G2
50:29
Show details
Prediction details: Steve Owen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:29 (10:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Francesc Xavier Avellana Revuelta
ESP
+372 s
G0 / G15
 1:10:05
54:09
Show details
Prediction details: Francesc Xavier Avellana Revuelta

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +372 s
Time:
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 24.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -24.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:10:05 (7:01 / km)
Historical basis: 7:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:09 (10:50 / km)
Error: +15:56 / −3:49 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:10:05 (7:01 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.