Prediction comparison

75-79 Open AG Sprint

11.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 21/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 229 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 12.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 40.0 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Mean bike-speed error29.44 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	David Juggins GBR	+0 s	G0 / G1	44:21 25:03	Show details Prediction details: David Juggins Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 32.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.58 km/h Running and total Run: 44:21 (8:52 / km) Historical basis: 9:06 / km Best comparable pace: 9:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:03 (10:01 / km) Error: +19:18 / −1:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 44:21 (8:52 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Robert Hodgson GBR	+0 s	G0 / G1	47:04 25:57	Show details Prediction details: Robert Hodgson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -33.70 km/h Running and total Run: 47:04 (9:25 / km) Historical basis: 9:25 / km Best comparable pace: 9:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 25:57 (10:23 / km) Error: +21:07 / −0:58 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 47:04 (9:25 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Mick Anglim GBR	+845 s	G0 / G2	38:18 28:32	Show details Prediction details: Mick Anglim Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +845 s Time: Pace: 3:29 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 30.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -29.97 km/h Running and total Run: 38:18 (7:40 / km) Historical basis: 7:28 / km Best comparable pace: 7:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:32 (11:25 / km) Error: +9:46 / −3:45 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 38:18 (7:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Joseba Arroita Astelarra ESP	+0 s	G0 / G3	30:30	Show details Prediction details: Joseba Arroita Astelarra Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 27.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -27.28 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 30:30 (12:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Tony Bray GBR	+0 s	G0 / G4	30:38	Show details Prediction details: Tony Bray Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 23.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -23.67 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 30:38 (12:15 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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