Prediction comparison

PTS5 Women

14.06.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Para Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 83/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 45 früheren Rennen und 793 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 83.3 % · 45 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.0

Mean swim error60.1 s

Mean bike-speed error1.88 km/h

Correct bike groups4/6

No history0

Within the 80% range50.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Lauren Steadman GBR	+13 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:37 20:55	52:24	Show details Prediction details: Lauren Steadman Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 12:05 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 13.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 35.9 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h Running and total Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (4:11 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 52:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:05 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.0 km/h) Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Total: 52:24
2 / 2	Alisa Kolpakchy UKR	+214 s +135 s	G3 / G3 correct	19:50 20:02	59:38	Show details Prediction details: Alisa Kolpakchy Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +214 s Time: 15:26 Pace: 2:03 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +135 s Fehler: 78.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 154.5 s Gap behind: 77.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.51 km/h Running and total Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:02 (4:00 / km) Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 59:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:26 (2:03 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:14 (33.1 km/h) Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km) Total: 59:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:11 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 194.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Marta Dzieciątkowska POL	+58 s +23 s	G2 / G2 correct	22:08 22:40	1:00:41	Show details Prediction details: Marta Dzieciątkowska Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 12:50 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 34.9 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 31.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.0 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 34.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.38 km/h Running and total Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:26 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:40 (4:32 / km) Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:00:41 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:50 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:34 (31.9 km/h) Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Total: 1:00:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:11 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 39 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Monika Belczewska POL	+291 s +119 s	G4 / G4 correct	21:35 21:18	1:02:38	Show details Prediction details: Monika Belczewska Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +291 s Time: 16:43 Pace: 2:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: 171.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.40 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 77.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 34.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.96 km/h Running and total Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:18 (4:16 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:38 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:43 (2:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:12 (33.1 km/h) Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Total: 1:02:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:11 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 271.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6	Irina Grazhdanova RUS	+59 s +53 s	G2 / G4	24:08 22:23	1:02:41	Show details Prediction details: Irina Grazhdanova Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 12:51 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 6.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 154.5 s Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 33.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h Running and total Run: 24:08 (4:50 / km) Historical basis: 4:52 / km Best comparable pace: 4:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (4:29 / km) Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:41 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 12:51 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:34 (31.9 km/h) Run: 24:08 (4:50 / km) Total: 1:02:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:11 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m About 40.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Maria Fuertes Artigot ESP	+49 s +105 s	G1 / G4	20:33		Show details Prediction details: Maria Fuertes Artigot Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 12:41 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: -56.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 55 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 35.9 s Gap behind: 9.0 s Result: Group 4 (3 people) Speed: 34.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.66 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (4:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:41 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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Running and total

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