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Elite Men

21.03.2026 CHN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Cup Haikou

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 99/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 98.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.8
Mean swim error8.8 s
Mean bike-speed error0.99 km/h
Correct bike groups17/54
No history0
Within the 80% range61.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Hugo Milner
GBR
+24 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 14:14
13:51
 41:38
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Milner

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:14 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:51 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 41:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:14 (2:51 / km)
Total: 41:38
2 / 8 Callum McClusky
AUS
+25 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 14:14
14:13
 41:38
Show details
Prediction details: Callum McClusky

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 192 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:14 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:13 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 41:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:14 (2:51 / km)
Total: 41:38
3 / 4 David Cantero Del Campo
ESP
+25 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 14:19
14:04
 41:43
Show details
Prediction details: David Cantero Del Campo

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:04 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 41:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Total: 41:43
4 / 2 Tim Hellwig
GER
+28 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:20
14:15
 41:44
Show details
Prediction details: Tim Hellwig

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:20 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:15 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 41:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:20 (2:52 / km)
Total: 41:44
5 / 9 Mathis Beaulieu
CAN
+26 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 14:23
14:09
 41:47
Show details
Prediction details: Mathis Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–19
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 2.8 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:09 (2:50 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 41:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km)
Total: 41:47
6 / 37 Keller Norland
USA
+27 s
+35 s
G1 / G3
 14:30
15:53
 41:54
Show details
Prediction details: Keller Norland

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -8.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:30 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 41:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:30 (2:54 / km)
Total: 41:54
7 / 10 Michael Gar
GBR
+5 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:38
14:46
 42:02
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Gar

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–31
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:02
8 / 14 Martin Sobey
CAN
+29 s
+27 s
G1 / G2
 14:38
14:40
 42:02
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Sobey

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–34
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 202 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 199 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:02
9 / 26 Takumi Hojo
JPN
+21 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 14:50
15:45
 42:14
Show details
Prediction details: Takumi Hojo

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–21
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 2.6 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 253 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 253 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 42:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:14
10 / 1 Oliver Conway
GBR
+20 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:53
14:15
 42:17
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Conway

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:15 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:17
11 / 36 David Lang
LUX
+25 s
+44 s
G1 / G4
 14:56
15:14
 42:20
Show details
Prediction details: David Lang

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–27
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -19.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:20
12 / 43 Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen
MEX
+19 s
+53 s
G1 / G5
 14:57
15:23
 42:21
Show details
Prediction details: Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–23
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -33.8 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:21
13 / 19 Max Studer
SUI
+26 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 15:01
14:58
 42:25
Show details
Prediction details: Max Studer

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 5–33
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:25
14 / 16 Peter Luftensteiner
AUT
+27 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:01
15:09
 42:25
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Luftensteiner

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–28
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:25
15 / 30 Braxton Legg
USA
+19 s
+18 s
G1 / G3
 15:06
15:03
 42:30
Show details
Prediction details: Braxton Legg

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:30
16 / 18 Brandon Copeland
AUS
+29 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:06
15:24
 42:30
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Copeland

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 8.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 221 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 214 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:30
17 / 40 Esteban Basanta Fouz
ESP
+14 s
+14 s
G1 / G4
 15:08
15:36
 42:32
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Basanta Fouz

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 7–30
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:32
18 / 24 Xirui Zhang
CHN
+24 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:10
15:40
 42:34
Show details
Prediction details: Xirui Zhang

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–31
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:34
19 / 7 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+4 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:18
14:38
 42:42
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 10–35
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 42:42
20 / 27 Andrés Prieto Villar
ESP
+19 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 15:21
15:46
 42:45
Show details
Prediction details: Andrés Prieto Villar

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 16–30
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 42:45
21 / 15 Oscar Coggins
HKG
+27 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:23
15:10
 42:47
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Coggins

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–38
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:47
22 / 48 Mikhail Antipov
RUS
+25 s
+38 s
G1 / G4
 15:27
16:21
 42:51
Show details
Prediction details: Mikhail Antipov

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 15–42
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -13.4 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 42:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:51
23 / 21 Ren Sato
JPN
+29 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 15:33
15:15
 42:57
Show details
Prediction details: Ren Sato

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 323 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 323 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Total: 42:57
24 / 23 Takuto Oshima
JPN
+15 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 15:35
15:22
 42:59
Show details
Prediction details: Takuto Oshima

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 15–35
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 42:59
25 / 34 Kenshin Mori
JPN
+31 s
+35 s
G1 / G3
 15:37
15:16
 43:01
Show details
Prediction details: Kenshin Mori

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 24–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:01
26 / 33 Junjie Fan
CHN
+14 s
+12 s
G1 / G2
 15:39
16:24
 43:03
Show details
Prediction details: Junjie Fan

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 22–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 1.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:03
27 / 5 Brandon Pye
GBR
+23 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:41
14:29
 43:05
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Pye

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 22–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:29 (2:54 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 43:05
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:05
28 / 25 Maciej Bruzdziak
POL
+12 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:44
15:59
 43:08
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Bruzdziak

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 25–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:08
29 / 35 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+28 s
+34 s
G1 / G3
 15:44
15:21
 43:08
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 19–45
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:08
30 / 6 Baptiste Passemard
FRA
+10 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:48
14:33
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Baptiste Passemard

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 2–50
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:33 (2:55 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:12
31 / 11 Roberto Sanchez Mantecon
ESP
+34 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:44
14:24
 43:14
Show details
Prediction details: Roberto Sanchez Mantecon

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 9–30
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:24 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 50 Kuba Gajda
POL
+33 s
+73 s
G2 / G5
 14:46
16:34
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Kuba Gajda

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 9–27
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: -40.2 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: −1:48 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 13 Aoba Yasumatsu
JPN
+33 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 14:47
14:54
 43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Aoba Yasumatsu

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 7–40
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 288 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 285 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 17 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+17 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:55
15:13
 43:19
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 25–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -0.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Total: 43:19
35 / 38 Theo Marti
LUX
+20 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 15:59
17:27
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Theo Marti

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 22–44
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -0.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Error: −1:28 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:23
36 / 31 Erwin Vanderplancke
BEL
+33 s
+35 s
G2 / G3
 15:06
15:05
 43:36
Show details
Prediction details: Erwin Vanderplancke

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 8–45
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -2.2 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 53 Yunkang Luo
CHN
+15 s
+3 s
G1 / G5
 16:13
17:13
 43:37
Show details
Prediction details: Yunkang Luo

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 35–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:37
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Total: 43:37
38 / 22 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+15 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:20
15:44
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 14–49
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Total: 43:44
39 / 41 Rongheng Chen
CHN
+39 s
+48 s
G2 / G4
 15:16
15:51
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Rongheng Chen

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 22–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -9.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 32 Grigory Antipov
AIN
+37 s
+31 s
G2 / G3
 15:25
15:10
 43:55
Show details
Prediction details: Grigory Antipov

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 24–44
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 28 Philip Pertl
AUT
+37 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:28
16:03
 43:58
Show details
Prediction details: Philip Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 18–49
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 46 Yunfeng Teng
CHN
+36 s
+37 s
G2 / G4
 15:29
16:09
 43:59
Show details
Prediction details: Yunfeng Teng

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 22–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 12 Alex Robin
GBR
+15 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:49
14:52
 44:13
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Robin

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 42–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.34 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 44:13
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: 44:13
44 / 49 Brett Saunders
CAN
+17 s
+28 s
G1 / G4
 16:55
16:54
 44:19
Show details
Prediction details: Brett Saunders

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 34–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -10.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 12
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:19
45 / 44 Niklas Keller
AUT
+37 s
+43 s
G2 / G4
 15:58
16:02
 44:28
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 21–51
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 52 Tsz To Wong
HKG
+44 s
+48 s
G2 / G4
 16:04
17:42
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Tsz To Wong

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 29–53
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -3.7 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 6.2 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 12.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 47 Sullivan Middaugh
USA
+54 s
+92 s
G3 / G5
 14:49
15:40
 44:40
Show details
Prediction details: Sullivan Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 21–49
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 47
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: -38.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:49 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 14:49 (2:58 / km)
Total: 44:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 22 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 20 Toby Powers
AUS
+40 s
+37 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:21
15:06
 44:51
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 40–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 3.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 44:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 8.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 29 Blake Bullard
USA
+52 s
+3 s
G3 / G2
 15:14
15:58
 45:05
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 30–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 49.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (16 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Total: 45:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 45 Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang
HKG
+32 s
+33 s
G2 / G3
 16:51
16:31
 45:21
Show details
Prediction details: Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 44–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Total: 45:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 42 Porter Middaugh
USA
+57 s
+51 s
G3 / G4
 15:34
15:57
 45:25
Show details
Prediction details: Porter Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 42–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 45:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 25.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 54 Isaac Tan
MAS
+39 s
+47 s
G2 / G5
 17:14
17:28
 45:44
Show details
Prediction details: Isaac Tan

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 48–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -8.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Total: 45:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 39 Tak Long Yip
HKG
+51 s
+47 s
G3 / G4
 16:08
15:39
 45:59
Show details
Prediction details: Tak Long Yip

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 44–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 18.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 51 Poli Stoffel
LUX
+31 s
+54 s
G1 / G5
 19:02
16:44
 46:26
Show details
Prediction details: Poli Stoffel

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 53–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -22.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (37 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +2:18 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 46:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:53 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Total: 46:26