Prediction comparison

PTWC Men

02.09.2024 Paris FRA

Race information and calculation basis

Paris 2024 Paralympic Games

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 64/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.2

Mean swim error32.6 s

Mean bike-speed error1.30 km/h

Correct bike groups3/9

No history0

Within the 80% range44.4 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Jetze Plat H2 NED	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	13:59 11:44	44:49	Show details Prediction details: Jetze Plat H2 Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 38.9 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 44.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h Running and total Run: 13:59 (2:48 / km) Historical basis: 2:52 / km Best comparable pace: 2:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:44 (2:21 / km) Error: +2:15 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: 44:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (38.9 km/h) Run: 13:59 (2:48 / km) Total: 44:49
2 / 2	Florian Brungraber H2 AUT	+44 s +56 s	G2 / G2 correct	13:12 11:16	45:57	Show details Prediction details: Florian Brungraber H2 Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 10:21 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -12.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Gap ahead: 44.0 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h Running and total Run: 13:12 (2:38 / km) Historical basis: 2:42 / km Best comparable pace: 2:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:16 (2:15 / km) Error: +1:56 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 45:57 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 13:12 (2:38 / km) Total: 45:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 40.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Geert Schipper H2 NED	+60 s +62 s	G3 / G3 correct	12:25 11:29	46:32	Show details Prediction details: Geert Schipper H2 Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: -2.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.6 s Gap behind: 16.6 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h Running and total Run: 12:25 (2:29 / km) Historical basis: 2:29 / km Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 11:29 (2:18 / km) Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 46:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.2 km/h) Run: 12:25 (2:29 / km) Total: 46:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 55.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Nic Beveridge H1 AUS	+53 s +132 s	G3 / G8	13:33 12:56	47:40	Show details Prediction details: Nic Beveridge H1 Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 10:30 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +132 s Fehler: -79.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 6.6 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h Running and total Run: 13:33 (2:43 / km) Historical basis: 2:42 / km Best comparable pace: 2:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:56 (2:35 / km) Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 47:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.2 km/h) Run: 13:33 (2:43 / km) Total: 47:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 49.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9	Howie Sanborn H1 USA	+143 s +245 s	G5 / G7	13:05 18:49	48:40	Show details Prediction details: Howie Sanborn H1 Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +143 s Time: 12:00 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +245 s Fehler: -102.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 66.4 s Gap behind: 46.4 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.94 km/h Running and total Run: 13:05 (2:37 / km) Historical basis: 2:38 / km Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.48 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km) Error: −5:44 / −1:09 / km Overall prediction: 48:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:00 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:13 (36.1 km/h) Run: 13:05 (2:37 / km) Total: 48:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 138.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5	Giovanni Achenza H1 ITA	+76 s +155 s	G4 / G6	15:09 13:20	50:29	Show details Prediction details: Giovanni Achenza H1 Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 10:53 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +155 s Fehler: -78.8 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.6 s Gap behind: 66.4 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 33.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.72 km/h Running and total Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.47 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:20 (2:40 / km) Error: +1:49 / +0:22 / km Overall prediction: 50:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:04 (35.2 km/h) Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km) Total: 50:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 72.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Fathi Zwoukhi H1 TUN	+189 s +190 s	G6 / G9	12:33 12:47	53:37	Show details Prediction details: Fathi Zwoukhi H1 Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +189 s Time: 12:46 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +190 s Fehler: -1.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 46.4 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 32.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.38 km/h Running and total Run: 12:33 (2:31 / km) Historical basis: 2:30 / km Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:47 (2:33 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 53:37 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:46 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:50 (31.7 km/h) Run: 12:33 (2:31 / km) Total: 53:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 185.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8	Jumpei Kimura H1 JPN	+194 s +201 s	G6 / G10	17:50 13:19	58:54	Show details Prediction details: Jumpei Kimura H1 Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +194 s Time: 12:51 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +201 s Fehler: -7.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 30.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h Running and total Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:19 (2:40 / km) Error: +4:31 / +0:54 / km Overall prediction: 58:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:51 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:50 (31.7 km/h) Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km) Total: 58:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 190.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Louis Noel H2 FRA	+49 s +60 s	G3 / G4	12:17		Show details Prediction details: Louis Noel H2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: -11.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.25 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 12:17 (2:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 45.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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